HolyCoast: Rasmussen Generic Congressional Poll: GOP +12
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Monday, September 06, 2010

Rasmussen Generic Congressional Poll: GOP +12

When Gallup came out with their generic congressional poll showing GOP +10 many political pundits declared it an outlier.  Guess not:
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 48% of Likely Voters would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. The survey data was collected on the seven days ending Sunday, September 5, 2010.

This matches the largest advantage ever measured for the Republicans. Three weeks ago, the GOP also held a 12-point lead.

Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year. During 2010, the GOP edge has never fallen below five points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.
If this holds through Election Day we could see an historic loss of seats for the Democrats and a general pummeling in races at all levels of government throughout the country.

Even CNN/Opinion Research now has the GOP +7 and their poll tends to favor Democrats.  However, their polling director still doesn't get it:
"The survey indicates that independents and voters who dislike both parties are starting to break toward the GOP," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In a year when anger at incumbents is a dominant political force, the key to the election lies among those who aren't rooting for either side."
This is not an anti-incumbent year, it's an anti-Democrat year.

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