Conservatives Don't Much Care for Romney

Public Policy Polling has looked at the numbers in several states:

Mitt Romney's been looking weaker and weaker in our 2012 Presidential polling over the last couple months and it's pretty easy to identify the reason why: he has a major problem with conservatives and there's no evidence it's getting any better.

We've polled eight states, not including Massachusetts, since the 2010 election ended. Romney has the lowest favorability rating of the Republican top 4 with conservatives in every single one of those states except Michigan, where he probably benefits from his dad having been the Governor. And it's not like Romney is just slightly less well liked than the others with conservatives- it's a large gap, particularly when you compare him with Palin or Huckabee. Romney's average favorability is 58%. Gingrich is next worst at 64%, followed by Huckabee at 73%, and Palin does best at 77%.

Not surprisingly given that they like him the least, Romney also does the worst with conservatives when Republicans are asked who their top choice as the 2012 nominee is. In six of the eight individual states Romney is last with conservatives with the exceptions being Michigan again and Wisconsin, where he narrowly edges out Gingrich to finish third. On average Romney gets just 14% with conservatives in these preliminary trial heats with Gingrich at 17%, Huckabee at 21%, and Palin at 22%.

Charts and supporting info can be seen at the link.

My concern is the GOP has a nasty habit of nominating whoever's "next". That's how we ended up with Bob Dole in '96 and John McCain in '08. Right now Romney is "next" because he was the closest runner-up to McCain.

However, he will not inspire conservative support, and without it he can't win in November even if he puts together the right coalition and ground game to take the major primaries. That's what McCain did and we've all regretted it ever since.