Song of the Week for Southern California

"Build an Ark", by the Gaither Vocal Band. Not only works for the rain, but listen to the first verse and what it says about politicians:

Super La Niña

Looks like world weather is about to head into a very cold pattern:

A super La Nina is developing.

Historically, these strong La Nina events drop the Earth’s average temperature around one degree Fahrenheit, and the drop comes quickly. As a result, some of the same places that had record heat this summer may suffer through record cold this winter.

La Nina is the lesser-known colder sister of El Nino. La Nina chills the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and in turn cools the entire planet for one to two years or more. This chilling has the potential to bring bone-numbing cold to many parts of the world for this and the following winter. As a result, world energy demand may spike in the next one to two years as much colder weather hits many of the major industrial nations.

This La Nina appears to be special, at least so far. It is well on its way to being the strongest of these events since the super La Nina of 1955-1956. During that powerful La Nina that lasted two years, the global average temperature fell nearly one degree Fahrenheit from 1953 to 1956.

So, in a practical sense, what does this mean for temperatures around the U.S.?

Right now the Pacific Ocean is in the beginning of a thirty year cooler spell called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. There is a strong, potentially super La Nina developing. The sun is still quiet with very few sunspots. When these conditions exist, the first two months of the cold season (December and January) tend to be cold from Montana to Iowa to Florida up to the Great Lakes and most of New England. In addition, temperatures tend to be very cold from central and western Canada to Alaska. China could suffer a bitterly cold December and January if historic temperature patterns are consistent with current conditions. Much of central and western Europe are cold in these situations as well.

The second half of the cold season (February and March) typically experiences some changes in the global temperature patterns in these types of winters. For Europe the changes are not good. Bitter cold and snow dominates from western Russia across all of Europe. In other words, what starts as a cold winter in central and western Europe deepens into a severe winter in February and March across all of Europe. The extreme cold eases in southern China but it deepens in the north and northeastern part of the country. In the United States the cold of December and January in the middle and eastern part of the country reverses to mild weather from Texas to Florida up to the Great Lakes and New England. All of the western U.S. is cold and snowy up to the northern Great Plains. What starts as a mild winter out west turns much colder with large amounts of snow while the east gets a break from the cold.

By the way, for all the global warming activists out there, you might enjoy this paragraph:

The El Nino of the last year pushed the global temperature right back to where it had been in the beginning of 2007. The result has been no net warming or cooling since then. In fact, there has been no net warming or cooling since around 1999. Interestingly, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 369 parts per million to 387 ppm (parts per million) during this time. This amount is above the level of 302 ppm in 1910, when 20th century global temperature started to rise. Despite this significant rise in carbon dioxide since 1999, there has been no “global warming” during this period.

An inconvenient truth for Al Gore.  Today's big storm in the upper Midwest could be the first of many.

Mother Gaia Throws Out the Ceremonial First Hurricane

Gentlemen, start your hurricane preparations.  Although the graphic still says Tropical Storm Alex, it just became a hurricane.:

Or perhaps I should say "Señores, start your hurricane preparations" since it appears the storm will likely skip Texas and harass Mexico instead.  Good news for my friends in Rockport and Houston.

Hurricane Season Promises to be Busy

Hey, all you global warmists out there, get ready to start squealing:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issues its 2010 hurricane season forecast, predicting one of the strongest seasons on record -- and reiterating fears that the Gulf oil spill may be impacted by the severe weather.

Hurricane season for the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico begins June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30. That's when about 90 percent of the storms make themselves present, and the predictions for this season are grim -- which could wreak further havoc on the Gulf Coast.

NOAA's forecast predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with three to seven becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. Named storms come with top winds of 39 mph or higher. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes, with winds in excess of 74 mph, and three to seven could be Category 3, 4 or 5 storms with winds of at least 111 mph.

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

The global warmists were pretty quiet last year when the hurricane season almost didn't generate any hurricanes at all. Thanks to El Niño the storm season in the Atlantic was very subdued, so this year was bound to be bigger. Whether it turns out to be significant is yet to be seen.

2010 will be the 40th anniversary of Hurricane Celia, a storm most of you have probably never heard of but one for which I had a front row seat.

El Niño is Kicking Venezuela's Rear End

Hugo Chavez may have finally run into the real El Diablo, now known as El Niño:

Hugo Chávez may be wondering, as Venezuela's taps run dry and its cities fall into darkness, whether God is on the side of the Yankees.

The El Niño weather phenomenon appears to be taking sides as it parches leftist-ruled parts of South America and brings bounty to US farmers and corporations. One of the severest droughts in decades has given Venezuela's socialist president a political nightmare as hydro-electrical power dribbles to a standstill, unleashing blackouts, rationing and protests. The waters behind the Guri dam, which supplies more than half the nation's power, have touched perilously low levels. Chávez has declared an "electricity emergency", urging people to spend no more than three minutes in the shower. The president has even dispatched Cuban pilots to seed clouds for rain.

The state oil company Edelca has aimed higher: it summoned workers to a prayer meeting entitled "Clamour to God for the National Electricity Sector".

The crisis has extended to Paraguay, where another leftist leader, Fernando Lugo, ordered the presidential palace lights switched off. In Argentina and Brazil – also with leftist governments – torrential rain and high temperatures have blighted crops with insect and fungi attacks.

A suspicious soul could ask whether El Niño, a Pacific weather system that influences climate worldwide, is on Washington's payroll. Monsanto and Dow Chemical are enjoying booming pesticide and fungicide sales in Argentina as farmers battle to save soy harvests. But in the US Midwest, farmers expect record corn and soy crops.

Venezuela's economy is expected to shrivel as factories close and shops and offices reduce working hours. "It's a true emergency," said Chávez. With his popularity falling, he has fired the electricity minister and brought in foreign experts.

Chávez blames El Niño and climate change. Critics blame the Marxist commandante for not investing enough in power plants during his decade-old revolution. Whether there will be another decade of Chávez could depend on rain.

Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

The Blizzards Are Proof of Global Warming

That's what the government scientists want us to believe but even the NY Times is having some problems making that connection:

As millions of people along the East Coast hole up in their snowbound homes, the two sides in the climate-change debate are seizing on the mounting drifts to bolster their arguments.

Skeptics of global warming are using the record-setting snows to mock those who warn of dangerous human-driven climate change — this looks more like global cooling, they taunt.

Most climate scientists respond that the ferocious storms are consistent with forecasts that a heating planet will produce more frequent and more intense weather events.

But some independent climate experts say the blizzards in the Northeast no more prove that the planet is cooling than the lack of snow in Vancouver or the downpours in Southern California prove that it is warming.

The current weather conditions - heavy snow in the East, heavy rain in California, no snow in Vancouver, and even the anemic hurricane season we had in 2009 - are all classic results of El Niño, a weather condition that occurs every few years. And El Niño weather set-ups have been going on for centuries, regardless of the warmth or lack thereof of the climate. The weather we're having right now is completely consistent with what would be expected.

There's No Business Like Snow Business

El Niño is wreaking havoc with the plans for the Vancouver Olympic Games which are set to open in just 9 days:

With the Winter Games set to open in just 10 days, Vancouver Organizing Committee chief John Furlong told the media that everything was under control at Cypress Mountain venue, which will stage snowboard and freestyle competitions.

But despite Furlong's assurance, the situation has grown increasingly desperate with crews taking the extraordinary step of transporting snow nearly two hours from Allison Pass - which is about 150 km east of from Vancouver.

"Cypress is the only venue that has presented us with a significant challenge," Furlong told reporters. "I don't think there's anyone here for a second who thought we would have a January with no snow, but we did."

The warm weather is linked to an El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean, according to weather forecasters.

"What we have to do is that no matter what happens we have the backups in place... We simply cannot have a start that is affected by weather," Furlong told a news conference that was supposed to deal with the design of the new podiums.

"This has happened at every Olympics and what we're trying to do is demonstrate we are on top of this."

While Vancouver residents have been basking in unprecedented warm weather, just a short 20 minute drive away more than 100 workers at Cypress Mountain have been scrambling to prepare the Olympic site.

Snow stockpiled at higher elevations is being pushed down the mountain, trucks rumble up the switchbacks with more white gold and helicopters have been busy ferrying bales of hay to help build a base on the race courses.

Although the Games do not officially open until Feb 12, the venues are supposed to be ready by Feb 4 so the athletes now arriving in the city can train on them.

The alpine events could be pretty interesting. I just hope there aren't too many rocks sticking up out of the snow.

The Drought is Over

I sort of figured that would be the case after this week:

Federal forecasters have yet to formally call an end to Orange County’s seasonal drought. But rainfall totals from this week’s wild Pacific storms show that it is over. An official announcement is expected next Thursday, when the government issues its weekly drought update.

The four storms — carried to Orange County by a dip in the jet stream — doubled seasonal rainfall in some areas. And isolated showers today could raise the figures a bit more. The county had showers and hail before dawn today.

Fullerton Airport has recorded 8.88” of precipitation since the rainy season began on July 1. That’s 4.86” above average, says the National Weather Service. And most of the 5.68” of rain the airport has received this month fell during this week’s series of storms, which were carried here by a southward dip in the jet stream.

A similar tale has unfolded at John Wayne Airport, which is roughly in the middle of the county, making it a good benchmark for the region. The airport has recorded 7.62” of rain since July 1, which is 1.95” above average. And most of the 4.89” that’s fallen this month also came during this week’s storms.

I guess we'll have to come up with a new crisis for the politicians to fret over.

Day 5 of Biblical Rainstorm 2010

As you can see from the photo below we've certainly had the right flag out front this week, with four days of heavy rainstorms.

Day 4 ended with a bang. We had heavy rain during the morning and early afternoon, followed by a long break and actually saw a little bit of sun. After dark we began to get some showers again, and at 10:30 things got really interesting for a few minutes. Lightning, booming thunder, torrential rain and hail. I took a couple of shots of tropical plants on our upstairs deck that were full of pea-sized hail after a particularly vigorous shower. I had to scoop hail out of the drain to keep the deck from flooding into the house.


We awoke to rain this morning, but things should finally be calming down. More showers and possible thunderstorms could hit us today, but we won't have the several hours of steady rain we've gotten every day this week.

At the beginning of the week the prediction was for 8-10 inches of rain in the area and based on my official rain gauge (the bucket in my backyard), I think we came pretty close.

San Clemente Pier

Just to give you an idea of the power of this current batch of storms, here's a shot of the San Clemente Pier that I took last March:

And here's a picture someone else took two days ago:
I'm surprised it's still standing.

Torrents

Getting torrential rain now. Keeps knocking my Internet off. Posting by cellphone like our forefathers did. The Official HolyCoast Rain Gauge is being severely tested.

Day 4 of Biblical Rainstorm 2010 - The Radar

Need I say more?

Day 4 of Biblical Rainstorm 2010

We survived Day 3 without too much difficulty. Probably got somewhere near another 2" of rain, but didn't have the huge and lengthy downpours we had on Day 2. Lots of flooding problems in other areas, but around here everything stayed pretty much under control.

Sadly, the Lord called my backyard pump home so I may have to go find another one to deal with what's coming today:

A new Pacific storm will unleash the worst of its fury across Southern California and Arizona today into tonight. The resultant flooding, mudslides, burying mountain snow, damaging winds and severe thunderstorms will endanger more lives and property.

Today's storm is the fourth in a series of Pacific storms to slam into California this week.

The storms from Sunday to Wednesday dumped nearly 74 inches of snow on a mountain in the southern Sierra. The desert city of Palm Springs, Calif., received 42 percent of its average annual rainfall in those four days.

Showers are dampening Los Angeles, but heavy rain will return this afternoon with the arrival of the newest storm.

It is inevitable that the heavy rain through tonight will trigger more flooding and mudslides across Southern California and Arizona.

The rain will turn streams, rivers and washes into raging torrents. Officials may be forced to close more roads that become either flooded, washed out or covered by mud. Mudslides could even destroy homes nestled in the foothills or mountains.

There's a lot of concern about a number of the piers in the area with today's storm. Right now tides are very high and the storm winds are driving very impressive waves against our coast, causing both coastal flooding and in some cases sending waves over the piers. I can remember storms in the past when whole sections of piers just dropped into the sea.

Today could be the biggest storm of the four we've had so far. The Low which has been sending all these waves our way will cross the coast somewhere near Los Angeles, and that could give us a very wild day. Still more rain tomorrow before it all settles down over the weekend.

Maybe There is Global Warming - Olympics Will Be Trucking In Snow

How else do you explain this?

Olympic organizers say they will truck in snow for the freestyle skiing and snowboarding events at Cypress Mountain.

The forecast for the week ahead suggests there will be no new snow for the mountain on Vancouver's north shore, nor will it get cold enough to make any, the organizers said Wednesday after their final board meeting before next month's Olympic Games.

Cathy Priestner Allinger, executive vice president of sport and games operations for the organizing committee, says they are not planning to have snow.

Contingency plans are now being rolled out which include using straw and wood to take the place of snow to build the base for the courses.

Actually, it's easy to explain - El Niño. The storms that in a normal year would go north and hit Oregon, Washington and British Columbia are smacking California instead. We'll have plenty of snow down here if they want to send some of their athletes this way.

There is another way to fix this...send Al Gore to Vancouver. They'll have more snow than they can possibly handle.

Day 3 of Biblical Rainstorm 2010

Here's what we're looking at today and the the next couple of days:

... MORE STORMS STILL IN THE PIPELINE...

STRONG STORMS BATTERED SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MORE STORMS OVER THE PACIFIC WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEK. THE NEXT STORM WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN... FLOODING... AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS WILL FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER POWERFUL STORM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL... WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... AND FLOODING RAINS. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS.

Here we go again. I'll be out running around in it today, so I think I'll take the camera just in case I run into something interesting. If you want to play along at home, here's the local radar.

8" in One Week?

Southern California on average gets about 14" of rain a year. A series of storms that will hit this week could drop as much as 8" in Orange County before next weekend:

The first in a series of Pacific storms will move ashore late tonight and belt Orange County hard on Monday, dropping roughly 1.5” to 3” of rain in different areas by dawn on Tuesday, says the National Weather Service. The system is the warmest of three major pulses that are expected to collectively produce 4” to 8” along the coast, 10” to 15” on the western slopes of the Santa Ana Mountains, and 20” to 30” of rain in the San Bernardino Mountains, forecasters say. Several feet of snow will fall above the 6,000 foot level during the week. There’s disparity in the projected totals because forecasters can’t predict the precise path the storms will take as they move through Southern California.

This kind of storm sequence has happened a number of times during my years in Orange County. It's usually preceded by a drought period in which the politicians threaten all sorts of water rationing and enact new regulations banning car washing or lawn watering. The pattern is holding true this time as well.

I remember a similar circumstance in the late 70's when we were hearing all sorts of doom-and-gloom from the water people with rationing almost guaranteed for that following summer...right before we had a 10 day period with a new big storm hitting about every other day. By the end of that blast the drought was over.

Unfortunately, most of the water that will fall this week will be wasted. Our rivers have been concreted in to ensure that excess water leaves town as quickly as possible, but that prevents it from soaking into the water table and underground reservoirs so we could use it later. I'm surprised that in an area that is basically a coastal desert we haven't figured out a better way to retain more of the little bit of rain we get every year.

If rain falls in the amounts shown above whole neighborhoods will be devastated in the fire areas because there will be nothing to hold those hillsides in place. Local streams and river will rage and if there's aren't at least 10 swift water rescues (or body recoveries) by the end of the week I'll be surprised.

And don't even get me started on the traffic...

Better Batten Down the Hatches, California

For those who have been worried about the persistent drought in California, it looks like we can stop worrying about that and start building an ark. Take a look at this forecast from the USGS that was forwarded from an email to the campus community at Cal State Fullerton:

Currently, a strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below). Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to be monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expected to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

Western Coastal and Marine Geology
U.S. Geological Survey
Pacific Science Center

This is a pretty classic El Niño set-up and one I've seen a few times before, when we seem to get one big storm every other day or so for 8 or 10 days. Biblical amounts of rain at times which usually results in mudslides, flooding, swift water rescues, and all kinds of crazy stuff in an area that normally gets only 14" of rain in an entire year. I remember one December day back in the 90's when we got 6 1/2" in one day and I spent part of it trying to drain water from my back yard before it got into the house.

We could be in for a wild couple of weeks.

El Niño Becomes El No-no

Looks like the hopes of significant rains in the very dry west are...well, drying up:

This year’s El Nino would be mild, resembling the pattern of 2006 and 2007, weather experts said in remarks published on Sunday.

The oscillation of hot water in the eastern Pacific Ocean is going to be a let-down, in terms of precipitation over a parched California, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) researcher Bill Patzert told the San Diego Union-Tribune.

“This El Nino is definitely puny,” Patzert said , adding that this year’s pattern resembles the mild El Nino of 2006-2007, which left California’s snowpack and reservoirs short of what water experts had coveted: an end to five years of drought.

Although the jet stream pattern still shows that California might get a wet winter, the likelihood of floods and massive rains is diminishing, the paper quoted climatologists as saying.

“We’re planning for a dry 2010,” said Elissa Lynn, senior meteorologist for the state Department of Water resources, in an interview with the paper.

Oh well, back we go to living in a desert.

NOAA Confirms the Arrival of El Niño

I had this story a couple of weeks ago, but today NOAA is confirming that our little wet friend El Niño has come a'calling for this winter:

NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.

NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10.

“Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

El Niño’s impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative. On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires.

El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niño’s have also produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.

An El Niño event may significantly diminish ocean productivity off the west coast by limiting weather patterns that cause upwelling, or nutrient circulation in the ocean. These nutrients are the foundation of a vibrant marine food web and could negatively impact food sources for several types of birds, fish and marine mammals.

In its monthly El Niño diagnostics discussion today, scientists with the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center noted weekly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006.

El Niño includes weaker trade winds, increased rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, and decreased rainfall in Indonesia. These vast rainfall patterns in the tropics are responsible for many of El Niño’s global effects on weather patterns.

The last significant event brought something like 32 inches of rain to Southern California, an area where the average annual rainfall is 14 inches.

Could be another wet year. Of course, the upside is that the drought we're constantly warned about will probably be over.

The downside (besides the mudslides and all) - despite the fact that this pattern has repeated itself for millenia, some fool will blame it on global warming.

Break Out the Umbrellas, Here Comes El Niño

For several years now we've been hearing about how all of us Southern Californian's are in a drought. We're told to save water at every opportunity, and there are constant threats of rationing and huge price increases.

Well, Mother Gaia has a habit of fixing that every few years with something known as "El Niño", a condition in the Pacific Ocean that can cause a dramatic increase in rainfall in our area. The last time this happened we had well over 30" of rain that season, in an area with a normal annual rainfall of 14". It was a mess.

According to this Orange County Register piece, a new El Niño is setting up:

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center, which said only a couple of weeks ago that an El Nino might arise in the equatorial Pacific, now says that the periodic natural climate change seems to be evolving rapidly. The result, if the forecast turns out to be right, could mean an unusually wet winter for drought-plagued Orange County. It also might mean that the monsoonal flow into this area will be much stronger this summer.

In an analysis (read it) of the monsoon season for southeast Arizona, the CPC says online, “The forecast for the second half of the monsoon remains uncertain due to what appears to be a rapid-developing El Nino. An El Nino, which is a warming of water temperatures across the tropical East Pacific Ocean, causes significant changes in both monsoon and jet stream patterns, as well as the number of tropical cyclones in both the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

“It is unusual for an El Nino to develop this early and rapidly in the summer, but it has happened before: in 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2004. It is too early to tell how strong the El Niño will be, or when it will begin to affect the atmosphere. Based on recent water temperature trends in the tropical Pacific, it appears that the atmosphere won’t begin to fully respond to the developing El Niño until mid August or September, which should allow the monsoon high to remain generally north and east of Arizona, and keep things active for much of the summer.

“However, when an El Niño develops rapidly in the summer months, the monsoon high can be pushed away from us into Mexico during the second half of the season as the jet stream strengthens and dips farther south along the west coast of the United States. This in turn can result in a significant rainfall decrease in August and September. However, the same jet stream changes, coupled with an increase in tropical cyclones along the Mexico coast due to the warmer than normal water temperatures, can draw considerable tropical moisture into Arizona during September and October. Thus, the El Niño development, and any jet stream changes it may cause, will be watched closely in the coming weeks.”

I remember the 1997 event particularly well. On one memorable Saturday we had 6 1/2" of rain in that single day. I've never seen anything like it, with the exception of the Texas hurricane I experienced in 1970. We had a wooden deck in our backyard and I could see the water building up under the deck and threatening to flood into the house. I had to get out there in the downpour with a pick-axe and tear up a section of the deck to release the water from underneath. My kids thought it was pretty funny watching dad out in that mess.

I must admit, if the monsoon flow moves more strongly into Southern California that can be kind of entertaining because it usually brings thunderstorms with it, something we rarely see around here.

We need the rain, but we don't need it faster than an inch or two a day. This could be an eventful fall and winter.