Edouard Continues Toward Texas

Tropical Storm Edouard has not strengthened dramatically, but is expected to build slowly as it heads toward the Texas coast. There's a good chance it will arrive as a weak Category 1 hurricane:

NEW ORLEANS — Tropical Storm Edouard took aim at the coasts of Texas and Louisiana on Monday, threatening to pick up strength from warm Gulf waters and gain near-hurricane speeds over the next 24 hours.

Emergency teams were activated as Gulf residents prepared for a second strong storm in less than a month, although Edouard is forecast to hit a different stretch of the Texas coast or Louisiana than Hurricane Dolly did last month. ...

Edouard was expected to make landfall somewhere in Texas or southwest Louisiana on Tuesday morning. It was moving west near 8 mph, and forecasters said the warm waters of the Gulf provided the right conditions for the storm to intensify and approach hurricane strength with winds of 75 mph or more.

A tropical storm warning was in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward to San Luis Pass in Texas. A hurricane watch was in effect from west of Intracoastal City, La. to Port O'Connor, Texas.

Edouard had maximum sustained winds near 50 mph with higher gusts at 8 a.m. EDT Monday. The storm's center was located about 80 miles south-southwest of Grand Isle, La., and 285 miles east-southeast of Galveston, Texas.

The current forecast track can be found here.

Hello Edouard, Goodbye Gas Prices

Wait until the oil speculators get a load of this:

MIAMI (Reuters) - The fifth tropical depression of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season formed in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and was forecast to pass through key U.S. oil production areas before reaching Texas or Louisiana, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

One computer model indicated the weather system could reach hurricane strength before making landfall, but the Miami-based hurricane center's official prediction called for it to top out as a tropical storm with maximum winds of 55 knots, or 63 miles per hour (102 km per hour).

It would be called Tropical Storm Edouard once its top winds reach 39 mph (63 kph). Tropical storms become hurricanes when their top sustained winds reach 74 mph (119 kph).

Much of U.S. offshore oil production is in the likely path of the storm, which could also threaten Gulf Coast refineries.

Oil companies have been working to strengthen platforms to withstand hurricane-force winds and so storm level winds should not pose an undue threat.

The nightmare scenario is a strong hurricane which tracks along the Texas/Louisiana coast before slamming into the Houston ship channel. This isn't going to be the nightmare, but it will probably spook oil prices for a few days.

And, on this day in 1970 Hurricane Celia made a real mess out of Corpus Christi and surrounding areas, a storm that I had a front row seat for. The story is here.

UPDATE: Hurricane watches issued:

NEW ORLEANS — The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane watch for the coast of western Louisiana and eastern Texas.

The watch issued Sunday night means that hurricane conditions are possible from Tropical Storm Edouard within the next 24 hours from Intracoastal City to Port O'Connor, Texas.

The forecast track can be found here.