The Polls Are Making Me Dizzy

How do you go from 11 points ahead in the Newsweek poll and 14 points ahead in Gallup, to 3 points down in Newsweek and even in Gallup? Have a bad debate? Not really.

Oh, that's the spin that the media would have you believe. The mainstream media (MSM) wants you to believe that there has been a monumental shift in public opinion since the debate, enough to wipe out a large margin for the president. Before you sign on to that fantasy, read this about the Newsweek poll:

The blog Political Vice Squad says the Newsweek poll is skewed from its earlier one. They decreased Republican sampling by 5 percentage points and increased Democratic sampling by 6 percentage points. Furthermore, on the first of the three nights, the poll was limited to the "Pacific and Mountain time zones." In other words, registered voters from the following states completely were excluded: Texas, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, Indiana, and the entire old South.

Most experts have been suspicious of Gallup since it first reported a huge margin for Bush following the convention. I think once the internals are known, you may see some similarities to Newsweek in how that poll was put together (remember - the Gallup poll is sponsored by CNN/USA Today, neither ones big fans of the president).

In a more telling note, a democratic party sponsored poll only shows a 2 point bump for Kerry following the debate. My guess is that there may have been some slight movement among undecideds (how can you still be undecided after months and months of this campaign), but the president's lead is probably still around 5 points. We'll see how the state polls shake out.

UPDATE: The latest Zogby tracking poll surveyed 10-1 to 10-3 shows Bush still has a 3 point lead.

UPDATE 2: The Pew Research Poll has Bush up 48-41.

UPDATE 3: Washington Post/ABC News poll has Bush up 51-46.