Will It Be 1994 or 1998?

There are storm clouds on the horizon for the Republicans in 2006, and the question now is which model will the storm follow - 1994 or 1998?

Democrats think '06 will be their 1994 when the voters will sweep them back into power in Congress. I don't see that happening. The GOP sweep in 1994 was driven by a couple of things. First of all, you had a visionary, Newt Gingrich, come along and develop a set of ideas and goals which the American public embraced. The "Contract With America" caught the voter's attention, and by nationalizing the election, Gingrich was able to generate a voter interest in the GOP plan and backlash against the Dem majority. The other issue, of course, was Bill and Hill's desire to take over the health care system in the country, not to mention their many other foibles.

Where is the Dem visionary capable of generating national interest in electing Democrats to Congress? There isn't one. So far the sum total of the Dem plan is "vote for us, we're not them". That won't win you too many elections.

I'm beginning to think that the '06 midterms are probably going to look like the '98 midterms. After four years of the Republican Revolution, the conservatives had seen the fresh faced GOP congressmen of 1994 turn into the same old high-spending types they'd thrown out in '94. Conservatives got mad at being taken for granted and stayed home in large numbers. The GOP retained their majorities but lost a bunch of seats. Newt Gingrich ended up stepping down from the Speaker's post.

Unless things change dramatically, I can easily see conservatives pulling a '98 all over again and staying home on election day. The results could be devastating to the GOP majorities - possibly even saddling Bush with a Dem majority in one house or the other...and maybe both. It won't be liberal turnout that wins a Dem majority, but conservatives not turning out.

Conservatives are sending a message to Bush and Congress right now - don't you dare take our support...or our votes for granted.

There is a third option - 2002. If the president and Congress get their act together and start acting the way they promised to act when elected, conservatives will get back on board, and a motivated base could generate mid-term gains as they did in '02. Right now it's up to the folks in Washington to see what kind of election night they want to have in 2006.