To Filibuster or Not To Filibuster

The Dems are in a panic, and the last arrow in their anti-Alito quiver is the filibuster, something which has never been tried on a Supreme Court nomination. While some of them are saying the filibuster option is still on the table, Michael Barone has his doubts:

My guess is that the left Democrats are not going to be able to get the 41 votes they need for a filibuster. Sens. Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Kent Conrad of North Dakota, both up for re-election next year in solidly Republican states, voted for Roberts. So did Byron Dorgan of North Dakota and Max Baucus of Montana. They're not likely filibusterers. Bill Nelson of Florida, up for re-election next year, would take some political risks by opposing him. That's five—enough to defeat a filibuster right there. When you add to that the senators listed above from states with large numbers of Italian-Americans, many of whom in my judgment will be lukewarm at best about joining a filibuster, you can see why I think Schumer and company will not get up the head of steam they need.

In addition, two of the gang of fourteen, Sens. DeWine and Graham, have stated uncategorically that they will not vote to allow a filibuster to succeed. This means the Dems would have to run the table of the remaining wishy-washy Republicans in order to have any chance at making a filibuster stick. They desperately don't want to see the nuclear option enacted, so chances are any talk about filibusters is purely posturing and smokescreens. I don't think they can muster the votes to stop this nomination.

Also, any Republican who has any hopes of winning the primaries in 2008 can't possibly vote against this guy. That may serve to keep McCain and Hagel in line.

Samuel Alito; Alito; SCOTUS; Supreme Court; Filibuster