Anti-Incumbent Fever in '06?

John Fund writes today that there will be many political experts watching the Pennsylvania primaries tomorrow to see if there may be an anti-incumbent mood among the voters in '06:

Tomorrow's primaries in Pennsylvania may be an early indicator of just how mad voters--especially Republicans--are at incumbents this year.

Last July, the GOP-controlled Legislature, in cahoots with Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell, raised legislative salaries by between 16% and 54% without public debate, notice or review. They passed the raise in a 2 a.m. vote and also evaded a constitutional ban on midterm pay raises by pocketing much of the increase immediately as "unvouchered expenses." Promptly labeled "Harrisburg Hogs," the legislators became the brunt of a furious citizen revolt led by talk radio and the Internet that led to the unprecedented voter rejection last November of a sitting state Supreme Court justice, who'd also gotten a pay raise. Another justice was almost defeated. Two weeks later the Legislature repealed the pay raise with only one dissenting vote.

The anti-pay-raise activists aren't satisfied. They say the episode simply revealed how arrogant and out of touch legislative leaders are on a variety of fronts. A group called PACleanSweep.com is calling for the rejection of dozens of incumbents in the primary tomorrow. Most will survive, but several are getting the race of their lives. Attention is focusing on the races against three of the pay-raise ringleaders--two Republicans and a Democrat. Polls show the underfinanced challengers within striking distance.

These David vs. Goliath races in a key state are worth watching for clues to the national mood. "Republicans in D.C. who are hearing complaints from their base about pork-barrel spending and waste should pay attention to how that plays out in primaries," says Rep. Robert Walker, a Republican former congressman from the Keystone State.

Fund reports that some early signs of this anti-incumbent mood showed up earlier in the Indiana primaries:

Political types in Indiana already are paying attention. They were shocked earlier this month when three out of 25 incumbent state legislators facing primary challengers lost. The biggest casualty was Robert Garton of Columbus, president of the state Senate and a 36-year Republican incumbent. He lost to Greg Walker, a political neophyte and tax accountant.
Mr. Garton outspent his opponent 10 to 1 and had groups such as the National Rifle Association and the Indiana Chamber of Commerce in his corner. But in a move eerily similar to what happened in Pennsylvania, he set off a prairie fire of protest when he pushed through a bill to give state legislators lifetime health-insurance benefits.

Mr. Walker seized on the issue and coupled it with criticism that Sen. Garton had become a status quo politician. "Many elected officials serve for so long they become spokesmen for government, rather than those who elect them," he said. The challenger drove an orange 1970 Plymouth Valiant to emphasize the incumbent had been in office since then and that it was "time for a trade-in." He cobbled together just enough financial backing from a building contractor group and conservative school choice advocate J. Patrick Rooney to pull off a stunning upset.

Personally, I've always been in favor of term limits for legislators. Serving in a state legislature or Congress should not in effect be a lifetime appointment. In California, we fixed that a few years ago and now regularly term limit out the old guard (this year we're getting rid of gay activist and former Dobie Gillis actor Sen. Sheila Kuhl who is pushing her gay agenda on schoolkids atevery opportunity).

At the federal level, it would take a constitutional amendment to stop the lifetime employment that we see in both houses. I think two Senate terms and 6 House terms are plenty for anybody, and getting some new blood in there would be good for everyone. Of course, those states represented by fossils with seniority won't be excited about losing that seniority when their guy gets termed out, but maybe we'll get some people in their who work for the voters and not for the lobbyists.