Will Israeli Conflict Save Joe Lieberman

Captain Ed points to an interesting article regarding the impact of the Israeli conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah on his primary campaign against anti-war one-note Johnny Ned Lamont:

Pro- Israel groups, afraid of losing one of their staunchest supporters in Congress, are pouring money into beleaguered Sen. Joe Lieberman's campaign as he tries to fend off a tougher-than-expected primary challenge.

The three-term lawmaker is struggling to dispatch millionaire businessman Ned Lamont in the Aug. 8 primary. Lamont's fierce criticism of Lieberman's backing of the Iraq war and perceived closeness to President Bush has won him followers among hard-core Democrats.

The primary is Aug. 8 and Lieberman has said he will run as an independent if he loses.

Pro-Israel political action committees have donated to the Connecticut senator's campaign and have urged their national membership to give generously now and later, if Lieberman is forced to run as an unaffiliated candidate.

"Joe Lieberman, without exception, no conditions ... is the No. 1 pro-Israel advocate and leader in Congress," said Mark Vogel, chairman of the National Action Committee, a pro-Israel political action committee. "There is nobody who does more on behalf of Israel than Joe Lieberman. That is why he is incredibly important to the pro-Israel community."

There's nothing like ongoing terrorist attacks to remind people what we're up against in the war on terror. Lamont's act is getting very, very old, and serious people cannot vote for a guy who would cut and run in the face of the enemy.

UPDATE: Latest Quinnipiac poll has Lamont up 51-47. John McIntyre of RealClearPolitics.com (writing at Political Diary) thinks Lieberman is going down:

It was August 7, 2000, when Al Gore picked Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut to be his running mate. In a little under three weeks, on August 8, 2006, Mr. Lieberman's 35-year political career as a Democrat is likely to end. As things now stand, the Connecticut senator will probably lose his primary match up against anti-war insurgent Ned Lamont. What's worse, Mr. Lieberman's backup plan of running as an independent if he loses the Democratic primary may not be successful either.

Today's Quinnipiac poll confirms private polling and shows Mr. Lamont surging ahead of the three-term incumbent, 51% - 47%. That's a whopping 19-point swing from Quinnipiac's last poll only six weeks ago, which showed Mr. Lieberman with a 55% - 40% lead. And this is from a poll that's been very kind to the senator. Rasmussen Reports' June survey had Mr. Lieberman ahead only 46% - 40% and was taken at the same time that Quinnipiac pegged Mr. Lieberman's lead at 15.

It's clear Mr. Lamont has good momentum, and the polls seem to reflect the anecdotal evidence that all of the energy is on his side. Mr. Lieberman's other problem is that he is unprepared to execute the organizational ground game needed to get his voters to the polls on a Tuesday in early August. Easy wins in 1994 and 2000, coupled with solid job approval numbers that mirror the state's other Democratic senator, Chris Dodd, have bred an arrogance and complacency that is catching up with the Lieberman campaign big time.

With the primary fast becoming a lost cause for Mr. Lieberman, the question is whether he can get things turned around in time for the fall. Assuming he loses on August 8th, the senator will likely still lead in the post-primary polls. Right now, both Quinnipiac and Rasmussen have him ahead in a three-way race, by 24 points and 15 points, respectively. But Mr. Lamont will probably get a huge boost from a win in the primary, and Mr. Lieberman will be burdened with the baggage of a humiliating primary rejection.

Incredibly, Senator Lieberman may feel worse the day after the election this fall than he did six years ago.

I guess there's fewer serious people among Connecticut Dems than I thought.