Big Primaries Today in Rhode Island and Maryland

One incumbent Senator faces elimination today in Rhode Island, while a whole crowd of folks try to replace a long term Dem in Maryland (from RCP):

RI Sen: Today's the big day for Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island. Expect it to be very close. Laffey has run an effective outsider campaign, fueled by $700,000 from the Club For Growth. Chafee, on the other hand, has gotten more than $1 million in support from the NRSC as well as establishment support for his GOTV effort.

Meanwhile, Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse is waiting in the wings. With a million five in cash and help from the DSCC he'll be a heavy favorite against Laffey and a formidable challenger to Chafee - should he survive today's vote.

MD Sen: The other big race on the docket today has national implications as well. A SurveyUSA polll released last night shows Cardin with a 9-point lead. Whether this poll is accurately capturing the feelings of African-Americans remains to be seen, and if black voters turnout for Mfume today we might be in for a very close race.

The conventional widsom is that Cardin will be a stronger candidate against Republican Michael Steele, but as John wrote recently about this race, "if Mr. Cardin holds on to win after what has been a racially tinged primary against Mr. Mfume, Democrats could face the very real prospect of a disappointed African-American base in the fall." In other words, a close Mfume loss today could be a boost to Steele's chances.

The GOP has already given up Rhode Island if Chafee loses, and a real interesting question in Maryland is where will the black voters go if Mfume loses? The Republican in that race will be a black conservative. Blacks may see themselves shut out of Dem politics once again and could move to Michael Steele, a very attractive candidate for the GOP.