Bush/Rove Still Upbeat About November

There seems to be a new media meme underway which goes something like this: How come President Bush hasn't given up yet? First we had the US News story by a writer who was astonished that Bush didn't have plans to lose, and now the Washington Post cannot understand how Bush and Rove could continue to be upbeat about their chances:

Amid widespread panic in the Republican establishment about the coming midterm elections, there are two people whose confidence about GOP prospects strikes even their closest allies as almost inexplicably upbeat: President Bush and his top political adviser, Karl Rove.

Some Republicans on Capitol Hill are bracing for losses of 25 House seats or more. But party operatives say Rove is predicting that, at worst, Republicans will lose only 8 to 10 seats -- shy of the 15-seat threshold that would cede control to Democrats for the first time since the 1994 elections and probably hobble the balance of Bush's second term.

In the Senate, Rove and associates believe, a Democratic victory would require the opposition to "run the table," as one official put it, to pick up the necessary six seats -- a prospect the White House seems to regard as nearly inconceivable.

The Mark Foley page scandal and its fallout have many Republicans panicked, but Rove professes to be taking it in stride. "The data we are seeing from individual races and the national polls would tend to indicate that people can divorce Foley's personal action from the party," he said in a brief interview Thursday.

While I will agree that things are not rosy for the GOP right now, I'm doubtful that they're as bad as the media would have you believe. Generic ballots may tell you the overall mood of the country, but you have to remember that House races are chosen locally, and in the last polling I've seen, something like 60 percent of respondents still think their congressman is doing a good job. If they vote that way the GOP losses will be minimal.

And don't forget Karl Rove's track record. In 2002 he helped engineer the campaign that resulted in a gain of seats in both Houses - something that history said shouldn't happen. Rove knows he has a vastly superior get-out-the-vote effort which historically has far exceeded anything the Dems can muster. The winos, illegal aliens, delinquents and felons that the Dems manage to register during their many voter drives rarely show up on election day.

There are still three weeks for news events to change what is today's conventional wisdom, and given how fast Foleygate changed the momentum in one direction, who knows what might happen to turn things the other way.