The United States Is Going to Be Just Fine

Larry Kudlow offers his take on the latest round of pre-election polls at The Corner:

The first batch of major polls released following the Foley scandal and Speaker Hastert’s mismanagement of this mess has hit the street. They are devastating to the Republican outlook for the congressional elections on November 7—devastating.

Though the Foley scandal is not the biggest issue in the race, at the margin, it is having a very negative impact; one might even call it a tipping point. Metaphorically, it highlights ongoing GOP problems of corruption, ineptness, mismanagement and poor judgment.

Undoubtedly, these new numbers capture a loss of Republican support among security moms and a loss of energy among conservative values voters. According to the Gallup poll, it has put the issue of government corruption right at the top of the list with Iraq and terrorism—exactly where the GOP doesn’t want it.

48 percent of likely voters rate corruption, Iraq, and terrorism as the big three issues. The GOP is losing by 20 points on corruption, 17 on Iraq and, get this, 5 points on terrorism. (That last one is tough to take, but there you have it.)

Among likely voters, Gallup shows a 23-point lead for the generic House vote, 59-36 for the Dems. Only a month ago, it was a 48-48 tie. In addition, by a 43 to 36 percent margin, respondents say Speaker Hastert should resign.

(Noteworthy: In his press conference today, Denny Hastert actually used the word “cover-up” for the first time. The Speaker said that if the Foley investigations reveal any evidence of a cover-up, staff heads would roll. A little late Mr. Hastert?)
A CBS poll also shows a 46-26 margin of respondents believing Hastert should resign, while the Congressional vote came in 49 to 35, Dems over Republicans.

Despite all this relentlessly negative polling news for the GOP, the stock market continues gaining ground. Gold is down, the dollar is up and the market message—despite a likely GOP pasting this fall—is for continued prosperity in 2007. It’s still the greatest story never told.

Perhaps the GOP will get an election comeuppance; and maybe that’s not such a bad thing after all.

In the long run the United States is going to be just fine.

I saw one analysis that suggested that the Korean crisis will go away soon, but the Foley scandal will continue for weeks. You'd think in a serious world it would be just the opposite, but the media has a vested interest in keeping Foleygate at the top of the news, and it could be the tipping point that Kudlow refers to.

The election itself will be much closer than what the polls show now. There's four weeks left for everybody to calm down about Foley, and even in the latest polls, 60% of respondents said they liked what their congressman was doing. If they vote that way, very few seats will change hands.