Assessing the Kerry Damage

Newsweek has a piece on the damage done to the Dems by John Kerry's "botched" joke:

Nov. 4, 2006 - Chuck Schumer got right to the point. On Thursday afternoon, the New York Senator, who’s leading the Democrats’ efforts to win back the Senate, called John Kerry and let him have it. The Massachussetts Senator’s supposed “botched joke” about the president's handling of Iraq had become a feast for Republicans—sucking up tons of airtime and knocking Democrats off message in the crucial remaining days before the midterm election. Kerry’s attempts to fight back, by calling the Republicans “stuffed suits” and “right wing nutjobs,” was only prolonging the story and making things worse. Apologize now, Schumer told him, according to a high-ranking party official who didn’t want to be named talking about a private conversation. (A source close to Kerry said the exchange was cordial.)

Just the day before, Kerry had been all swagger as he took swipes at President Bush in a speech to a crowd of Democrats. But Kerry, never known for his verbal agility, or his sense of humor, mangled what was supposed to be a biting laugh line aimed at the president’s handling of the Iraq mess. “If you … do your homework, you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. If you don’t, you get stuck in Iraq.” Nervous laughs from the audience. It sounded for all the world like Kerry had just called U.S. soldiers stupid. Republicans pounced with amazing speed, denounced Kerry with unmasked glee. Sen. John McCain demanded an apology. Even the president got in on the action, appearing on the Rush Limbaugh show. After months of trying, and largely failing, to weaken Democrats as anti-military and soft on terror, here was Kerry making their point for them.

Kerry tried to get on top of the problem. He explained convincingly that he had simply “botched” the line. He was supposed to say, “… you get us stuck in Iraq.” As in Bush. But the explanations came too late. If he had corrected his garble during the speech, or quickly produced a copy of the text afterward to show that it was merely a slip of the tongue, that might have been the end of it. Or, he could have simply apologized. But instead, Kerry—who still kicks himself for not fighting back harder when Republicans “swift boated” him in 2004—responded with defiance. It was the chance he had been waiting, and preparing, for: The opportunity to debut the new John Kerry, the one who doesn’t get rolled. “I’ve seen the worst of what they throw at you, so there’s no hesitation on my part to know how to handle that or what to do,” Kerry told NEWSWEEK a few weeks before the incident. “I’m in a fighting mood.” Appearing on the Don Imus radio show two days after the speech, Kerry was clearly looking to show he wasn’t going to let the GOP make a mockery of him again. “These guys have failed America,” Kerry said. “The people who owe an apology are people like Donald Rumsfeld, who didn’t send enough troops, who didn’t listen to the generals, who has made every mistake in the book.” Imus flat out begged Kerry to cease and desist. “Stop talking. Go home, get on the bike, go windsurfing, anything. Stop it. You’re going to ruin this.”

I think Kerry did significant damage to the Dems, not only from the message itself, but because he became the focus of attention for three critical days. The Newsweek writer clearly wants to give Kerry the benefit of the doubt on the "botched joke" (note she says he 'explained convincingly' - convincingly to whom? Not me). However for a great many voters, this is just another in a long line of anti-military comments from Kerry, which lends an element of doubt about his apology, and an element of doubt about the Dems real feelings toward the military.

Gallup has a new poll out and is placing some of the blame for movement toward the Republicans squarely on Kerry's remarks:

President Bush's last-ditch push for votes and Sen. John Kerry's comments that seemed to denigrate the education level of U.S. forces in Iraq have helped energize GOP voters. A Democratic advantage of 23 percentage points a month ago and 13 points two weeks ago is now down to 7.

A Pew Research Center survey released Sunday also showed that an 11-point edge for Democrats on the congressional ballot two weeks ago had narrowed to 4 points among likely voters. "It's gone from a slam-dunk for Democrats to take the House to a pretty good chance," says Andy Kohut, director of the center.