By Wednesday morning I'll either be a political sage, or I'll be way off. It's up to the voters now. I know the GOP get-out-the-vote program is at high speed because I've gotten a bunch of automated phone calls in the last couple of days.
Some analysts and pollsters are predicting a Dem "wave". Well, if I may torture the analogy a little bit further, I think the wave broke over the Great Kerry Reef last week and what makes it to shore is more likely to be a ripple rather than a tsunami.
Yes, I've seen the projections from the "experts" who are calling for a 20-40 seat switch in the House, and 6-7 seat switch in the Senate. I just don't believe them. I don't think their turnout models are accurate, and I think the GOP will outperform the projections just as they did in 2002 and 2004. If I'm wrong, so be it.
Here we go with my congressional projections:
THE SENATE : GOP -2 (possibly only -1)
Republicans will hold serve in Arizona, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada, Montana and Missouri.
ARIZONA: Jon Kyle is too strong for anything the Dems are going to throw at him. He'll win easily.
VIRGINIA: Webb is too cold and creepy for Virginia voters, so they'll hold their nose and vote for Allen. He'll win by a comfortable margin.
TENNESSEE: Harold Ford Jr. has too much family baggage and has acted somewhat erratically during the campaign. Bob Corker wins by 10.
NEVADA: John Ensign easily wins reelection over the hapless carpetbagger Jack Carter.
MONTANA: Conrad Burns will overcome the Abramoff scandal and Montanans won't elect a way left loonie who wants to repeal the Patriot Act.
MISSOURI: Jim Talent overcomes massive voter fraud in St. Louis and the Michael J. Fox ad and wins a squeaker over Claire McCaskill and her bogus ads.
Republicans will lose Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.
OHIO: Mike DeWine can't overcome the many Republican political scandals that have plagued that state and loses decisively to Sherrod Brown, who has scandals of this own and will probably be a one-termer (if not forced to resign early). (NOTE: Check the comments for more news from Ohio.)
PENNSYLVANIA: PA voters will make the most grievous mistake of this campaign season and will send an empty suit in the form of Bob Casey Jr. to replace the substantial Rick Santorum. A loss for Pennsylvania, and and a loss for the country.
RHODE ISLAND: Lincoln Chafee gets crushed, and good riddance. The late polls show Chafee drawing even or even leading in RI. I'm not convinced that he'll be able to pull it out.
Republicans will pick-up Maryland.
MARYLAND: Ben Cardin has run a campaign of entitlement - because he's a Dem, he's entitled to the seat in a blue state. He's a bland, unappealing candidate totally devoid of ideas. A perfect Dem.
Michael Steele, a wonderful candidate on so many levels, will pick up sizeable support in the black community, as well as the reliably Republican votes, and will knock off Cardin.
The Wild Card - New Jersey.
NEW JERSEY: Bob Menedez is a walking, talking scandal waiting to break, and New Jersey voters are tired of having their politicians quit under a cloud of controversy, or declare themselves "gay Americans". Tom Kean Jr. has a famous name and seems to be a likeable and capable guy, and with a little luck, could win this thing. Even if he loses, Menedez will not serve out the full term as the scandals are likely to catch up with him.
Dems will lose Connecticut and Vermont, though it won't really matter.
CONNECTICUT: The Connecticut will officially fall out of the Dem category as Joe Lieberman wins his independent run for Senate over "One-Note" Ned Lamont. The nutroots will be crushed, though it won't affect the Dem caucus as Lieberman will likely remain on the Dem side of the Senate chamber. Harry Reid is already making committee chairmanship promises.
VERMONT: As in CT, independent (socialist) Bernie Sanders will win and will continue to caucus with the Dems, pulling them even further left (if that's possible).
FINAL TALLY: GOP-53, DEM-45, IND-2
THE HOUSE: GOP -9
I haven't had the time nor the desire to study the 435 House races, or even the 40 or so that are in serious contention. This is pretty much a gut feeling prediction based on my suspicions of the quality of the polls and the superb GOP get-out-the-vote campaigns. I just don't see a lot of GOP incumbents getting the door, especially after John Kerry so graciously reminded us all what real Democrats are like. I think the base will turn out as they usually do when important elections are on the line, and any movements in independents away from the GOP will be overcome.
FINAL TALLY: GOP-223, DEM-212 , No speaker Pelosi.
Well, there you go. Could these predictions be wishful thinking? Sure, but we can dream, can't we?
In local news, The Governator will massacre Phil Angelides, though it will be a tougher night for other California Republicans. The most idiotic propositions, 86 & 87, will be defeated. Californians just might pass 85, the parental notification for teen abortion law, though it will be immediately challenged. Prop. 90, the eminent domain bill, will be close. It's getting hammered in TV ads. Most other bond measures will be defeated (Californians are getting smarter about those things).
I'll be live blogging election night as the calls are made and we'll see how close (or how far off) I was. Be sure and check in Tuesday night.
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