As Expected Romney Wins Straw Poll

Mitt Romney chalked up his first victory in the '08 presidential race, but I'm not sure it will really matter that much:

AMES, Iowa, Aug. 11 -- With a convincing victory in the Republican straw poll here Saturday, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney vaulted himself into the next phase of a presidential nomination battle pitting his traditional early-state strategy against a more unorthodox approach by national front-runner Rudolph W. Giuliani.

Romney's win in the nonbinding Ames contest, sealed by his appeals to the party's conservative base and generous spending all around the state, underscored his attempt to concentrate time and resources on the opening states of Iowa and New Hampshire, believing that early victories will propel him to the nomination.

Giuliani, who is at odds with GOP conservatives on abortion and gay rights, skipped the Iowa test run as part of a blueprint for victory that is less dependent upon winning the first two voting states. Giuliani strategists see a flock of big states holding their contests in late January and on the first Tuesday in February as the former New York mayor's best chance to secure the nomination.

"Romney's running a more traditional campaign to solidify social conservatives and economic conservatives," said Scott Reed, who managed Robert J. Dole's 1996 presidential campaign. "Rudy is not only trying to change the importance of the calendar but also trying to turn out a lot of moderates who don't traditionally vote in these primaries and caucuses. . . . Giuliani's strategy is not flawed -- but it's never been tested."

The GOP race remains wide open, with many Republican voters disgruntled with their choices and support for all the leading candidates remaining relatively soft and shallow. That foreshadows five months of intensive campaigning before Iowa's caucuses in January.

Romney won because he spent heavily in Iowa and his main opponents opted to pass on the event and save their resources for more important contests. Neither Rudy Giuliani nor John McCain participated, and Fred Thompson has yet to announce. Despite the win in Iowa Romney is still polling nationally in single digits (8% last time I looked) and his prospects of being the eventual nominee were not significantly enhanced by the Iowa win. He'll get some favorable press out of it, but I think it will end up being a hollow victory.