Has the Dem Wave Broken

Patrick Ruffini at HughHewitt.com is thinking that the projected Dem wave for 2008 has already broken:

I think we can finally dispense with the talk of 2008 being another 2006 for Democrats.

This hasn’t shown up in the national numbers, or likely will for weeks. I get the sense that right now is the time to sell the contract on Democrats winning the White House on Intrade. (Technical analysis alone would suggest this — check out the hockey stick-like buying pattern.) That isn’t to say they won’t win — but 63 will probably be their high water mark for quite some time.

This is not a call for celebration. We are still laboring against a significant enthusiasm gap and an unpopular war. But a few important indicators suggest we may have found a bottom. For a party that hasn’t been on the upswing since January 2005 and has been in virtual freefall since Katrina, that is something.

Patrick has an analysis of several key issues, including Iraq, SCHIP, the recent election in Massachusetts, plus some historical perspective on election cycles. It's interesting reading, though may be a little optimistic. I hope not. Read it here.