Huckabee Leaps Into the Iowa Lead

After leading the Iowa polls for many months, Mitt Romney suddenly finds himself in second place and looking up at a most unexpected leader - Mike Huckabee:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Iowa caucus finds former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with 28% of the vote, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 25% support, and everyone else far behind. National frontrunner Rudy Giuliani gets just 12% of the vote in Iowa at this time while former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson is the only other candidate in double digits at 11% (see crosstabs).

Given the margin of error, the challenges of determining the relatively small number of people who will participate in a caucus, and other factors, the race is far too close to call at this point in time. However, the fact that Romney is no longer the clear frontrunner in Iowa reflects a stunning change in the race.

Compared to our prior survey, the trend is unmistakable—Huckabee has gone up and just about everybody else has gone down. Huckabee’s 28% support represents a twelve point increase from a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted earlier in the month. Romney is down four points while Giuliani and Thompson are each down three points from the previous survey. John McCain is down two points and earns just 4% support. Ron Paul picked up a point and is now at the 5% level.

Hmmmm. Although Huckabee didn't get his outright endorsement, he did get a pretty supportive statement from Pastor Rick Warren of Saddleback Church (h/t Campaign Spot):

“I know most of the candidates running for president but I’ve known Mike Huckabee the longest, since we did our graduate degrees together in the late 70s. Mike’s a man of vision, compassion, and integrity. I’ve watched his uncanny ability to identify with normal people in ways that many leaders don’t. That’s probably why TIME named him one of the five best governors in America. He’s definitely presidential material. But honestly, what I find most appealing is his self-deprecating humor. That’s a key sign of a spiritually and emotionally healthy leader - someone who is comfortable with himself, is authentic, doesn’t wear a mask, and is secure enough to be humble. People love that.”

In my opinion Warren's non-endorsement endorsement will carry a lot more weight with many evangelicals than Pat Robertson's outright endorsement of Rudy Giuliani.

I think Romney's star is falling, and Rudy is having his problems as well with a revelation about some expense problems while he was mayor of NYC. It ain't over yet, that's for sure.