What's Most Important in the Next President - Christianity or Competence?

This post might fulfill the motto at the top of the blog:  "Guaranteed to make you think, make you laugh or make you mad".  As it says above, I'm happy with any of the three.

I've been thinking about the whole issue of the Christianity and the presidency, especially in light of comments I've seen from friends on Facebook expressing their disappointment in the announcement from Mike Huckabee that he wouldn't be running.   It was pretty clear that some of them were supporting Huck mainly because he's a former Baptist preacher and still professes his Christianity.  Others bemoan the lack of a "good Christian" among the remaining people it the GOP field.

But should faith be the primary consideration in choosing a president?

No.

For some it seems that faith is the only determining factor, and that my friends, is dangerous.

Mike Huckabee concerned me.  Although he may be a Bible-believing Christian, his social policies as Governor of Arkansas were pure big government liberal.

Jimmy Carter taught Sunday School in a Baptist church throughout his presidency, and his early post-presidency was a model of Christian charity.  But he was a disastrous president and his later years have been filled with anti-American/anti-Israel activism.

I don't think anyone would doubt George W. Bush's faith, but again when it came to government he gave us growing deficits, two wars and a Medicare prescription entitlement plan that we won't be able to afford.  "Compassionate conservatism" is a euphemism for big government.

And let's not forget the current president who claims Christianity after attending for 22 years a black separatist church run by a racist anti-Semitic pastor.

There's more to the job of president than faith.  Rick Warren is a terrific Christian, but I wouldn't vote for him for president.  I want somebody who knows how to be president, not how to lead a megachurch.

There are elements of our faith that some seek to enshrine in our Constitution, and I don't want that.  I'm pro-life, but I don't want a pro-life amendment in the Constitution.  Federalizing abortion was the biggest mistake of Roe v. Wade.  Rather than try and change the rules our government operates by, let's get Roe overturned and return the authority over abortion to the states where it belongs according to the 10th Amendment.  You're then welcome to work within the political system of your state to change the abortion laws to your liking.

Same with gay marriage.  The Constitution was made very difficult to amend because the Founding Fathers didn't want future generations to be able to bend it to the whims of the day.  The concept of a "living Constitution" is an abomination if "living" is defined as "meeting the politically correct standards in place that day".

Bottom line:  I want to see a president who understands that the Constitution was designed to put limits on federal government, not allow it unfettered power to run rampant over the lives of Americans.  I want a president who's honest, believes in American exceptionalism, understands the importance of peace through strength, and is not afraid to get in the faces of the rest of the world when they're working against our best interests.  I want a President of the United States, not a President of the World.

And if he or she happens to be a Christian, all the better.  But with this nation teetering on the brink of some very bad times, I'd take an atheist who would lead the country according to the bottom line mentioned above before I'd want a Christian who wouldn't or couldn't do it.  Any president who truly supported the Constitution as written would be operating under Christian principles whether they wanted to or not because the founding documents of this country were based on Christian ideals.

We need a return to competence in the White House.  A president, not a national preacher.

Huck's Out, So Who Benefits?

Besides the voters, that is. Katrina Trinko at The Corner has some reactions:

It’s unlikely that Mike Huckabee’s decision to forgo a presidential run will significantly boost any candidate.

“I don’t think anybody gains tremendously from this,” says Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “I can see three or four candidates who can pick off social conservatives or Southerners or blue collar Republicans and Independents. I just don’t see there being a real Huckabee bloc that moves en masse to anybody.”

Sabato thinks that Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty are among those who could gain some of the social conservative voters that have backed Mike Huckabee, while southern voters might drift to Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.

One candidate who might not pick up votes from Huckabee’s decision: Mitt Romney.

“He hates Mitt Romney,” Sabato says. “Given that intense dislike, one has to assume that he will at least make comments hurtful to Romney and maybe endorse one of the other candidates at some point to try to stop Romney, if indeed Romney’s moving forward.”

Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Iowa Republican Party, sees Santorum as gaining the most in Iowa from Huckabee’s decision.

“I would say Bachmann as well, but Bachmann’s not even to an exploratory stage yet, so it’s not like she can rush in there and actively seek out these votes,” Robinson says. “So I think it’s Santorum who’s going to benefit from this.”

Robinson also points out that Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, could have a “significant” impact on the caucuses again this year if he chooses to endorse a candidate.

I remember hearing  in 2008 about some of the things Romney did to Huckabee from a Huckabee campaign insider, and it wouldn't surprise me a bit if Huck makes it his personal mission to end Romney's campaign.

The Huck Stops Here

Mike Huckabee won't be running for president.  He announced that on his show just now.  I thought he might get in since the field is so weak right now, but apparently he enjoys that Fox News Channel paycheck a little bit too much.

Trump and Huck Lead the Field

Gallup has the latest on the ho-hum GOP field for 2012:

Donald Trump debuts in a first-place tie in Gallup's latest update of Republicans' preferences for the party's 2012 presidential nomination among potential contenders. Trump ties Mike Huckabee at 16%, with Mitt Romney close behind at 13%. Sarah Palin is the only other potential Republican candidate to earn double-digit support.

So far neither Huckabee nor Palin have shown signs that they're ready to get in the race. I'm beginning to think that if Trump really wants the nomination he can get it.

The Huck and The Donald

Daily Caller notes the strange relationship between Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump:

 Why is Mike Huckabee defending a big government con artist? -- Donald Trump sent a note congratulating Rep. Nancy Pelosi on her coup for Speaker in 2007 and donated to the senate campaigns of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010. If all that weren't enough to make him persona non grata in the conservative movement, there's also this, from NRO: "Trump has a track record of using the government as a hired thug to take other people’s property." That's right, Trump is a big believer in eminent domain, defined as the right of the rich and politically connected to kick lower and middle class homeowners out on their asses, bulldoze their homes, and build whatever they like, so long as they pay higher taxes. In short: Trump is no more a conservative than Joseph Stalin, who also loved eminent domain. It was the Club for Growth that recently pointed out Trump's affinity for government-assisted theft. This earned them the ire--and Trump the support--of Mike Huckabee, who is so angry about having been called a "a tax-loving socialist" four years ago that he is apparently willing to bind his reputation to the Donald's. 

Which guy is bucking for the VP slot?

Romney Should Stop Exploring

Yesterday, on the fifth anniversary of Romneycare in Massachusetts, Mitt Romney announced the establishment of his presidential exploratory committee.  I think he should stop exploring.  It ain't gonna happen.  Mitt's not going to be president, and I frankly doubt he'll be the nominee.

Look at this CNN poll as reported by Dave Wiegel:

Trump's support comes largely from Romney, who falls to his lowest support in two years.
Huckabee 19%
Trump 19% (+9)
Palin 12%
Gingrich 11% (-3)
Romney 11% (-7)
Paul 7% (-1)
Bachmann 5% (+5)
Daniels 3%
Pawlenty 2% (-1)
Santorum 2% (-1)
Barbour * (-1)

Here's the field without Trump:
Huckabee 24%
Gingrich 16%
Palin 16%
Romney 16%
Paul 9%
Daniels 4%
Pawlenty 3%
Santorum 2%

Romney is banking on the GOP's bad habit of choosing "whoever's next" and since he gave John McCain the best run in 2008, he's "next". We don't want to make that mistake again.

At this point I'm almost hoping Donald Trump makes a serious run at it. With a GOP field this lackluster at least he'd add some excitement.

Political Quote of the Day

From Sarah Palin, during a speech in India:

"Republicans have the fighting instinct of sheep sometimes."

Ain't that the truth.

Daily Caller adds this:

When reached for comment, Romney and Huckabee looked up from their delicious, crunchy grass and replied: "Baaaaaaaaa."

Too often Democrats bring a gun to a political fight and Republicans bring a pen knife. We get way to worried about what the media and others will think of us.

Most Open GOP Field in 50 Years

Either nobody really wants the job, or Republicans just can't find anyone they really like:

There's nothing typical about this GOP field.

For more than half-a-century, the race for the Republican presidential nomination has always featured a clear front runner at this point in the campaign, according to a Gallup analysis out Monday. Not this time.

Those early Republican front-runners in past contests have had good odds, and have gone on to win the nomination in 8 out of 10 competitive Republican races since 1952.

While today Mike Huckabee has a slim lead among Republican and Republican-leaning voters with 18 percent of the vote, no one has made wide strides away from the pack. Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney are each the pick of 16 percent.

The 2008 election is the only case surveyed by Gallup in which the eventual nominee gained front-runner status late in the campaign cycle. In most elections, the nominee had netted that status by March.

The 2012 field's deviation from the familiar pattern of nominating the heir apparent could have consequences for fundraising and party cohesion beyond the race for the nomination, the analysis notes.

Let's see:

• Mitt Romney - Romneycare, part-time conservative
• Newt Gingrich - Baggage
• Sarah Palin - Baggage
• Mike Huckabee - Meh
• Rick Santorum - Can't win
• Ron Paul - Nuts
• Donald Trump - Seriously?  He could end up being the Ross Perot of 2012.
• Tim Pawlenty - Name recognition problem
• Mitch Daniels - Too willing to compromise
• Jon Huntsman - Who?
• Haley Barbour  - thick-as-molasses Southern accent may be a problem in the north.
• Herman Cain - Hate to say it, but I don't think America is going to be ready for another black president anytime soon.
• Michele Bachmann - You think Sarah Palin's been demonized, wait until you see what they do to Bachmann.
• Chris Christie - Has said numerous times he doesn't want to run in 2012.  I believe him.

Can someone other than these folks still jump into the fray and win the nomination?  I hope so.

The GOP 17

Republican voters will have a lot of choices...for at least a couple of primaries...when they go to pick the 2012 nominee who will face Barack Obama (or perhaps Hillary Clinton).  Here's the list from Washington Whispers:

The A-Team Nine

- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the front-runner, largely because he was the runner-up to Sen. John McCain in 2008.

- Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has recently made a name for herself by endorsing winning Tea Party candidates.

- Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, a social conservative in his second term.

- Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, a fiscal conservative in his second term.

- Mike Huckabee, a Fox host and former 2008 presidential candidate.

- Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

- South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a conservative and darling of the party for defeating former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004.

- New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, whose budget cutting in his first year has impressed many in GOP ranks who want him to apply his touch to Washington.

- Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, already running and showing his conservative side.

The Eight Long Shots

- Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, a hero to fiscal conservatives.

- South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, a Palinesque conservative who's helped steer the U.S. Senate to the right.

- Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the gadfly 2008 candidate who kept a very loyal following.

- South Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley, who hasn't even won yet but is being heralded as the new Sarah Palin.

- Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush who has rejected a run but who still gets kudos for being the "smart Bush" for his successful two terms in Florida.

- Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who'd be the social conservative in the race.

- Former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton, a foreign policy hawk who conservatives adore.

- Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal whose effort to protect his shores from the Gulf Oil Spill won him notoriety lost when he gave a lackluster national political address in 2009.

Let me run through the names:

• Mitt Romney - The GOP has a bad habit of nominating "whoever's next", and that would be Romney.  But he's still got the Mormon problem...and the personality problem.  He's also the author of Romneycare, the MA version of Obamacare that's proving to be a fiscal nightmare.
• Sarah Palin - Quitting the governor's job in Alaska, no matter how justified, will kill her chances. That and the caricature that has been created by the media. 
• Haley Barbour - I like him.  He was a great RNC Chairman, has been a good governor through some pretty tough times for his state (Katrina hit MS hard), and is a very smart politician.  His deep South accent won't help him in certain parts of the country.
• Mitch Daniels - Could be a strong candidate, though he's not some major name recognition work to do.
• Mike Huckabee - I'm not convinced he wants to give up his Fox TV gig to get back into a fight he probably can't win.
• Newt Gingrich - Good idea man but carrying way too much baggage.
• John Thune - Impressive guy but will have to get a lot better known.
• Chris Christie - Won't run.  Too soon.  He needs to show what he can do in New Jersey first.
• Tim Pawlenty - I like him, but another guy who is not well known outside of Minnesota.
• Mike Pence - Solid conservative who could be a tough candidate if he can get the media to pay attention to him.
• Jim DeMint - I doubt DeMint will run.  Very conservative but not that well known.
• Ron Paul - Will run a vanity campaign, but not a chance of winning anything.
• Nikki Haley - Hasn't done anything yet.  If she ran she'd be another fad candidate and we don't need that.
• Jeb Bush - Great guy, great governor, bad last name.
• Rick Santorum - Unlikely to get far in the primaries.
• John Bolton - As I said the other day, there aren't enough adult diapers in all the Wal-Marts in the country to handle the liberals who'd lose control if Bolton became president.
• Bobby Jindal - Very smart guy who at this point would probably be a better VP candidate.

Four-Way Tie for GOP 2012 Nomination

From Public Policy Polling:

Raleigh, N.C. – Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and Mike Huckabee continue to dominate the early field of potential Republican challengers to President Barack Obama, splitting 87% of the vote, with each getting between 21 and 23%.

Huckabee currently has 23% to Romney’s 22%, Gingrich and Palin at 21%, Ron Paul at
4%, and unnamed others at 2%, with 7% undecided.

And I'm not excited about any of them.

Clarus Research Group has the numbers a little bit differently:

A new nationwide survey of Republican voters finds that support for former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to win the GOP’s 2012 presidential nomination has fallen by one-third since March, sliding from 18 points to 12 points. Palin is now running in fourth place for the nomination behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (26%), former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (21%), and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (14%).

Time for Mitch Daniels and Tim Pawlenty to get moving.

Early 2012 Polling

Yes, it's pretty meaningless at this point in the process but it can tell us something about the mood of the electorate.  From PPP:

(Obama) trails Mitt Romney 46-43, Mike Huckabee 47-45, Newt Gingrich 46-45, and is even tied with Sarah Palin at 46. The only person tested he leads is Jan Brewer, who doesn’t have particularly high name recognition on the national level at this point. . . .

There are two things driving these strong poll numbers for the Republican candidates. The first is a lead with independents in every match up. Romney leads 48-35 with them, Gingrich is up 50-39, Huckabee has a 46-40 advantage, Palin’s up 47-42, and even Brewer has a 38-37 edge.

The independents put Obama in office, and they can take him out.

Huckabee Positioning Himself for 2012

Although the title of the First Read piece is "Huck on Gay Rights", the story deals with Mike Huckabee's thoughts on a lot of subjects, all of which seem to be positioning him for another run in 2012:

In an interview with a student publication at The College of New Jersey, Mike Huckabee advocated strongly against gay rights, including civil unions, even adoptions by gay couples, saying, “Children are not puppies. This is not a time to see if we can experiment and find out, how does this work?” He added on comparisons on gay marriage and civil unions to people who use drugs and who are polygamists. “You don’t go ahead and accommodate every behavioral pattern that is against the ideal,” he said. “That would be like saying, well, there are a lot of people who like to use drugs, so let’s go ahead and accommodate those who want to use drugs. There are some people who believe in incest, so we should accommodate them. There are people who believe in polygamy, so we should accommodate them.” Huckabee said civil unions are "not necessary." “I think there’s been a real level of being disingenuous on the part of the gay and lesbian community with their goal of civil unions,” he said. He added that "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," "touches an extraordinarily small group of people," and therefore should not be repealed.

 He also criticized Mitt Romney's Massachusetts health-care plan as a "dismal failure." “Essentially ‘Obamacare’ and what Massachusetts has is virtually identical,” Huckabee said, adding that the Massachusetts plan has "resulted in huge cost increases, exponentially beyond what was projected."

Charlie Cook notes his impressions of the Southern Republican Leadership Conference. On Newt Gingrich: "His baggage might keep him out of the race or limit his ability to win the nomination, but watching him in action leaves a strong impression he has as much raw ability and political instincts as the rest of the field combined."

On Palin: "Palin is catnip for the Republican base. Watching her flirt and tease with GOP audiences leaves the impression that she uses her femininity much the same way California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger does his masculinity. Palin doesn’t compete with Gingrich for the minds of GOP voters, but she sure goes after their hearts — and she does it with a sassiness that is fun for even those who don’t like her."

Huckabee may have designs on 2012 but I think his results will be even worse than his showing in 2008. He'd be better off to stay with the TV show.

John Thune 2012?

Most Republicans I know are not enthused about the current crop of potential 2012 candidates which include Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin. Another name is surfacing, South Dakota Senator John Thune, and Politico takes a look at a possible candidacy:

With resurgent Republicans growing increasingly confident that President Barack Obama may yet be a political mortal in 2012, a new name is emerging as a potential presidential contender: South Dakota Sen. John Thune.

For those in the GOP who aren’t giddy about a second Mitt Romney run and aren’t sold on the viability of Tim Pawlenty, Thune represents a mainstream conservative alternative.

Tall, handsome, not yet 50 and with the sort of sunny demeanor that winning national Republicans usually possess, the former high school hoops star looks the part.

He’s also something of a national party favorite for slaying a political giant — then-Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004.

That race gave Thune a firsthand appreciation for the dangers of being perceived as straying too far from one’s heartland roots, so, as he faces reelection, he’s spending more time in his native Murdo, S.D., than in Manchester or Des Moines.

Yet while the official line is that he’s focused on South Dakota, aides and allies said that if, as expected, the March 30 candidate filing deadline passes and he does not have significant opposition, Thune may then start to take a more aggressive national posture by stumping for other Republican Senate candidates. Already a member of the Senate GOP leadership, he’s quietly begun seeking out conservative opinion leaders, and his staff is promoting his stepped-up media appearances.

Further, later in January, he’s going to report having more than $6 million in the bank — money that could be transferred to a presidential bid — and, thanks to the Daschle race, a 100,000-person-strong fundraising list. A Young Professionals event later this month in Washington is expected to draw a large crowd of up-and-coming lobbyists and operatives.

Thune is generating buzz, but the early chatter also poses an important question: With few significant accomplishments, is the talk reflective of somebody seen as real presidential timber or a leading indicator of a party establishment casting about for a candidate in what could be a thin field?

“No one seems particularly excited about the current prospective field,” said GOP strategist Mark McKinnon. “And everyone loves Thune.”

Thune already has experience knocking off a strong incumbent. He's the guy that took out Tom Daschle, the Senate Majority Leader. Thune has been consistently on the right side of the issues that matter and could be a very popular candidate. He's one of the few candidates I've ever sent money to.

Of course, Senators from South Dakota don't have a winning history in presidential elections (see McGovern, George), but this guy could be different. We'll see what he does in the next year or so.

Huckabee's Land of a 1,000 Pardons

Mike Huckabee has gotten some unwanted attention this week after a man whose sentence he commuted went on a cop killing spree in Washington State. As Red State reminds us, Huckabee was a pardon and commutation machine during his days as Arkansas governor:

Back in 2008, a lot of people tried to paint Mike Huckabee as soft on crime. But, the guy is extremely likable and he makes sure you know he is a former preacher. So people tend to forgive him for his forgiving criminals their crimes.

Despite several attempts to drum up a Willie Horton for Huckabee in 2008, nothing happened. People glossed over the numbers.

With the Washington State police killings, people will probably pay attention in a different way now.

As Fournier noted at the time, while Mike Huckabee was Governor of Arkansas, he granted “1,033 pardons and commutations, including for 12 convicted murderers.”

To quote a different preacher, those chickens are now coming home to roost in inconvenient ways.

He might have been able to dodge the attention to all of this in 2008, but after the cop killings, I can guarantee that should Huckabee run again his opponents will be quick to remind voters of his record when it comes to dealing with criminals.

Huckabee Apologizes

After initially blaming the freedom of the Washington State cop killer on the laws in Arkansas and Washington, Mike Huckabee realized that an apology might be warranted:

Former Governor Mike Huckabee: First of all the tragedy of this, if I could have known nine years ago that this guy was capable of something of this magnitude obviously I would have never have granted the commutation. It’s sickening. The two people in this country that I value the most are soldiers and police officers because they are the only ones standing between our freedom and total anarchy. And, in the case of this particular individual he was sentenced to 108 years for two crimes when he was 16. The post prison transfer board, they recommended to me as governor for his commutation which didn’t release him it simply cut his sentence to 47 years. That would give him parole eligibility. That was the commutation. I am responsible for that and it’s not something I’m happy about at this particular moment.

Huckabee wasn't the only one who agreed with the commutation of the suspect in the Washington State police shootings. The parole board voted unanimously for it and the judge also agreed. However, as the governor, Huckabee had the last word and I'm sure he's feeling pretty bad about the whole thing today.

Could This Be Mike Huckabee's Willie Horton?

You remember Willie Horton from the 1988 presidential campaign? This is from his Wikipedia entry:

...a convicted felon who was the subject of a Massachusetts weekend furlough program that released him while serving a life sentence for murder, without the possibility of parole, during which he committed assault, armed robbery and rape.

Al Gore brought Horton into the campaign during his failed run against Michael Dukakis, the governor who authorized the furlough program. During the general campaign George H.W. Bush basically beat Dukakis over the head with the guy and though it didn't help Gore, it helped Bush win.

On Sunday morning four police officers in Washington State were killed in an ambush, and one of the suspects has a connection that Mike Huckabee will find troubling should he run again in 2012:

Maurice Clemmons, the 37-year-old Tacoma man being sought for questioning in the killing of four Lakewood police officers this morning, has a long criminal record punctuated by violence, erratic behavior and concerns about his mental health.

Nine years ago, then-Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee granted clemency to Clemmons, commuting his lengthy prison sentence over the protests of prosecutors.

"This is the day I've been dreading for a long time," Larry Jegley, prosecuting attorney for Arkansas' Pulaski County said Sunday night when informed that Clemmons was being sought in connection to the killings.

Clemmons' criminal history includes at least five felony convictions in Arkansas and at least eight felony charges in Washington. The record also stands out for the number of times he has been released from custody despite questions about the danger he posed.

Clemmons had been in jail in Pierce County for the past several months on a pending charge of second-degree rape of a child.

He was released from custody just six days ago, even though he was wanted on a fugitive warrant out of Arkansas and was staring at eight felony charges in all out of Washington state.

Clemmons posted $15,000 with a Chehalis company called Jail Sucks Bail Bonds. The bondsman, in turn, put up $150,000, securing Clemmons' release on the pending child-rape charge.

Clemmons lives in Tacoma, where he has run a landscaping and power-washing business out of his house, according to a police interview with his wife earlier this year.

As mentioned previously Huckabee may not be inclined to run for other reasons, but this may make his decision a bit easier.

Memo to presidential wannabes - don't let bad guys out of prison if you find yourself with that opportunity. They'll just screw you up later on.

UPDATE: Huckabee responds to this unwanted attention (from Marc Ambinder's Twitter feed):

Huck, in statement, blames "justice systems" in both AK and WA for allowing release of suspect wanted for these "worst or all murders."

From statement: "He was arrested later for parole violation and taken back to prison to serve his full term, (cont)

Huck: "Our thoughts and prayers are and should be with the families of those honorable, brave, and heroic police officers.”

Huckabee's 2012 Presidential Bid Depends on His Ratings

If you don't want Mike Huckabee to run for president in 2012, be sure to watch his show on Fox News. It sounds like he'd be glad to stay with that if people keep watching:

MIKE HUCKABEE, on "Fox News Sunday," told Chris Wallace that a 2012 presidential bid is "less than likely," and depends on whether Roger Ailes, chairman and CEO of Fox News, keeps liking his eponymous weekend talk show. "The reason I wouldn’t is that this Fox gig I’ve got is really wonderful, " Huckabee said.

Huckabee plays a conservative on TV, but as governor of Arkansas he was one of those big spending "compassionate" conservatives. I think it's probably best if he sticks to TV.

GOP Poll Shows Huckabee in the Lead

It's waaaaay too early to give much credence to these numbers, but it's interesting nonetheless:

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Republican voters nationwide say former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is their pick to represent the GOP in the 2012 Presidential campaign. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 24% prefer former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney while 18% would cast their vote for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 14% of the vote while Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty gets 4%. Six percent (6%) of GOP voters prefer some other candidate while 7% remain undecided.

These numbers reflect an improvement for Huckabee since July when the three candidates were virtually even. Huckabee’s gain appears to be Palin’s loss as Romney’s support has barely changed.

My thoughts:

• Newt Gingrich is taking himself out of the race, so his numbers will have to go somewhere else. He won't be running
• Mike Huckabee is getting a lot of attention these days, especially with his own show on Fox News. Huckabee is a big government social conservative. If you think government will shrink under his presidency, think again. He didn't do it in Arkansas and I don't think we can expect it in Washington.
• Mitt Romney is the guy "who's next", which in GOP circles usually means he'll get the nomination. However, Romney still has the Mormon problem, and it is a problem for many voters. He's also a little stiff in his speeches and I just can't see him ultimately winning the nomination.
• Sarah Palin isn't ready for 2012. She may be the darling of a certain branch of the conservative wing of the party, but I still don't see her as having the power and ability to lead the ticket.
• I think Tim Pawlenty is the sharpest of the bunch, but right now he's got some work to do to get his name and policies in front of the GOP voters. That's what the next three years are for.
  

Could Tim Pawlenty Be the Guy the GOP is Looking For?

He's certainly doing his best to make that the case:

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has been quietly assembling the blueprint of a presidential campaign and will announce Thursday the support of a group of high-level political strategists and donors, complemented by a handful of top new media consultants, POLITICO has learned.

Pawlenty, under the radar of D.C.’s political community, has locked up some of the key operatives who engineered then-President George W. Bush’s reelection campaign — a significant feat for a little-known Midwestern politician.

The moves underscore, and will lend credence to, the emerging belief among many establishment Republicans that Pawlenty is becoming the sole viable alternative to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a potential Republican primary rival. The Minnesota governor has even gone so far as to contact some of Romney’s former supporters.

Pawlenty, who previously has had little political infrastructure, is now being advised by a trio of GOP consultants with presidential experience: Terry Nelson, Sara Taylor and Phil Musser.

And in formally opening his political action committee, Freedom First, Thursday, Pawlenty will also announce two co-chairmen, William Strong, a Morgan Stanley vice chairman, and former Rep. Vin Weber (R-Minn.), both of whom are heavyweight GOP figures, along with a list of prominent Minnesota donors.

In addition to a high-dollar gala launch for the PAC in Minneapolis in November, Pawlenty is planning a Washington fundraiser for late October designed to acquaint the governor with the Beltway’s most influential Republicans. Helping to coordinate the governor’s GOP outreach in the nation’s capital is Sam Geduldig, a well-connected lobbyist and former senior aide to Reps. John Boehner and Roy Blunt.

Serving as the PAC’s counsel is Michael Toner, a veteran campaign lawyer in Washington. Alex Conant, a native Minnesotan and former Republican National Committee spokesman, will serve as communications director.

The governor has also inked political technology consultants Patrick Ruffini, Mindy Finn, Patrick Hynes and Liz Mair to develop what Pawlenty advisers hope will be the most sophisticated new-media presence of any Republican in the nation. Pawlenty launches a new website, www.timpawlenty.com, Thursday.

The second-term Minnesota governor, who is not seeking reelection next year, is focused on twin political goals, his advisers say: helping elect two Republican governors this fall from his perch as Republican Governors Association vice chairman and using his PAC to aid like-minded candidates running in next year’s midterm elections.

But Pawlenty is doing far more than that to establish his presence in the minds of Republican voters.

He is also traveling the country at a fevered clip, appearing at scores of GOP and conservative events to speak to the party faithful, and becoming a frequent national TV presence, especially on cable television, where he’s able to offer sharp critiques of President Barack Obama’s latest moves.

I like what I've seen of Pawlenty so far. I still think Mitt Romney carries a little too much baggage with him to be a viable national candidate (sorry, but the Mormon thing is going to be a problem along with his relatively recent conversion to conservatism), Mike Huckabee is one of those "compassionate" conservatives who has a history of promoting big government social programs, and Sarah Palin isn't ready yet. Pawlenty might be just what we're looking for.

Romney Makes His Pitch for 2012

Yesterday Mitt Romney made what will likely be his 2012 pitch to the Values Voter Summit:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney reflects conservatives' growing confidence when he taunts Democrats, saying "I'll bet you never dreamed you'd look back at Jimmy Carter as the good old days."

Republicans at the Values Voter Summit Saturday talked of a growing political rebellion in the country, even as they acknowledged Democrats currently have the upper hand.

Romney recalled the euphoria among Democrats at the time President Barack Obama was elected.

"A year ago, there were quite a few people who were ready to write off this movement. They were enthralled by Barack Obama's promise of near-Biblical transformations," Romney said in comments prepared for Saturday's meeting. "Well, he can still spin a speech, but he can't spin his record."

Romney said Obama's spending and borrowing have weakened the nation, noting that Obama's plans will greatly increase the deficit. The deficits combined with coming problems for the country's entitlement programs will cause more severe economic problems, he said. Romney's reference to Carter recalled the economic and international troubles at the time Carter lost his bid for re-election to Ronald Reagan.

Based on the GOP's informal policy of nominating "whoever's next" (that's how we ended up with John McCain last year and Bob Dole in 1996), Romney would have to have front-runner status for 2012. Mike Huckabee won the straw poll among the religious conservatives, but I don't think that's an accurate predictor of who the nominee might be.

I think we'll hear a lot more from Tim Pawlenty before this is all done. To me right now, he shows the most promise as a conservative candidate who can appeal to the widest audience. We'll see.