The GOP Got a Gift Last Night

Some thoughts in the aftermath of the New Hampshire primary:

• The GOP got a gift. Had Clinton lost as badly as everyone thought she would her campaign would have been crippled, possibly beyond repair, and she would likely have been gone by Feb. 6 with Obama sweeping to a coronation. To me Obama is a much scarier candidate than Clinton because of his charismatic style. Given the electorate's desire for "change", he would be a tougher opponent than Clinton. Captain Ed agrees.
• Something has to be done to fix the polling methodology that led to a plethora of polls predicting a large Obama victory. The magnitude of the error might have actually contributed to Clinton's win as independents who might have gone for Obama may have actually voted for John McCain thinking that Obama had it sewed up. The other issue with bad polling is the bad faith it can create in our electoral process. If your candidate is projected to win by double digits and actually loses by three points, how confident are you going to be in the election results?
• Mitt Romney has one more bullet in his gun and that's Michigan. He was born there, his father was governor there, and it's as close as he's got to a home game following New Hampshire. Another loss in Michigan will all but end Romney's campaign. If he can't win in New Hampshire (where two thirds of the people watch Boston TV and saw Romney as governor for four years), or in Michigan where he was born, he probably can't win anywhere that matters.
• John McCain needs to find some money...fast! He has a good shot at winning in Michigan, but after that it's going to take money and lots of it to stay competitive.
• Rudy Giuliani's Florida strategy is still looking good - provided he can hang onto his lead in that state. There are a lot of states coming up shortly thereafter that should be good for Rudy, such as New York and New Jersey, and Rudy could become a player pretty fast.
• Fred Thompson must win South Carolina...period. Anything less means he's done.
• For John Edwards, Duncan Hunter, and Ron Paul, it's time to say goodbye.
• Both parties are in for a fight, possibly well into the Spring. Frankly, that would be good for everybody and if a brokered convention were to occur, more the better.
• Look for more "genuine" moments from Clinton. Crying on cue proved to be valuable.