The problem for the Republicans in this race is that none of them have received a majority of the vote. The winner gets about one-third of the vote, and is declared the big winner (usually said to have momentum, or what have you). Yes, he wins a plurality. But none of them have won the hearts and minds of the GOP. And in some cases, they are relying on Democrats and independents for their relatively meager vote tallies. McCain still is not winning conservatives. Huckabee is not as big an Evangelical vote-getter as thought.
It will come down to delegates, as it must. The problem for McCain is his record (which some of his supporters want us to downplay, or to limit to certain issues most important to them, or claim what matters is that he can beat the Democrat, or whatever). That's not going to work right now. Even if this website were to close down tonight and never reappear, McCain's positions on some major issues simply won't go down with a lot of conservatives.
And this isn't about wishing for the return of Ronald Reagan. This is about looking at the votes and opinion polls. I think most Republicans and conservatives can accept an imperfect candidate, as they always have. But, speaking for myself, I am as frustrated as I believe so many others are. It is hard to see how some of these candidates can draw the movement together, especially McCain, has spent a decade undermining major parts of it.
I am also convinced that Huckabee is now running for the second spot on the ticket. And he is likely to hold out to the bitter end, hoping his delegates will make him a player in the end. He has been extremely generous in his praise to McCain throughout the process. That's where he's putting his money. I was convinced a few weeks ago that McCain and Huckabee were teaming up against Romney. Time will tell.
On item of note from South Carolina - among non-evangelicals Mike Huckabee finished fourth. He has not been able to convince the non-evangelicals to support him, and that bodes ill for both his nomination chances and his chances in the general election.
I still don't think Mitt Romney can win a national campaign against either Obama or Clinton. He might attract some conservatives, but many people, whether fair or not, will not vote for a Mormon. The last survey I saw said something like 62% would definately vote against him.
If John McCain wins the nomination there will be mass defections among Republicans who have watched him undermine conservative values time and time again (McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, Gang of 14, etc). I will not vote for him...period. He will not be rewarded for his anti-conservative efforts with my vote, and if it means a Democrat wins, so be it. I don't even think the prospect of a President Hillary could motivate many conservatives to vote for McCain. Maybe the party will pay attention next time.
So where does that leave the GOP? Screwed.
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