HolyCoast: Who Would You Definately Vote For or Vote Against?
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Sunday, January 13, 2008

Who Would You Definately Vote For or Vote Against?

CNN has a new poll which seems to suggest that Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would beat any of the GOP candidates. Frankly, at this stage of the game that poll is meaningless. Wait until people have had to hear a candidate for months on end (especially Hillary) and see if that doesn't change the poll results. Also, it doesn't appear that Fred Thompson was included in the poll. Given the way Fred has suddenly come to life, I think there's a good chance that he could shake up those numbers.

The questions I found particularly interesting were these:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Would Definitely Vote Against That Candidate in November

Romney 62%
Giuliani 55%
Huckabee 52%
Clinton 43%
McCain 43%
Obama 38%

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts

CNN/OPINION RESEARCH CORPORATION POLL
January 9-10
REGISTERED VOTERS
Would Definitely Vote For That Candidate in November

Clinton 37%
Obama 30%
McCain 22%
Giuliani 19%
Huckabee 15%
Romney 13%

Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts
It's pretty hard to win anything if more than half the voters will definitely vote against you.

The GOP certainly has its work cut out for it, and I still think the whole Mormon thing is going to be an anchor tied to Romney and the GOP's leg if he's the nominee, whether fair or not. I know what Article VI says, but that doesn't mean the voters aren't going to apply their own religious test. The thing that I hear from people who say they can't support Romney is that they don't trust the judgement of someone who could believe some of the stuff that Mormon's believe. That's going to be a problem.

Huckabee will have somewhat the same problems Romney does, just with a different religion. Voters are for the most part okay with electing politicians who claim to be Christians (such as George W. Bush), but I'm not sure how they'll react to electing a former Baptist preacher.
I don't really understand why Rudy is generating such negativity, unless it's a reaction to his many wives. He also has kept a pretty low profile during the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, preferring to keep his campaigning mostly in Florida.

McCain is really the anti-Republican, having gone against his own party and on occasions his own president and seeming to take every opportunity to tick off GOP conservatives. My fear is that he could be the nominee and pretty much guarantee that a lot of Republicans take a pass on this year's election because they refuse to reward McCain with their vote.

For the sake of my sanity, I sure hope Fred Thompson comes alive.

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