The 2008 Election Starring Hillary Clinton as Al Gore and Barack Obama as George Bush

Michael Barone looks at the coming battle in the Democrat party that will result in Hillary Clinton playing the Al Gore 2000 role while Barack Obama plays George Bush:

The combination of scrupulous proportionality of elected delegates and the generous profusion of super-delegates sets the party on a collision course. Clinton currently trails Obama slightly in elected delegates and may do so even if she wins the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4. But she currently leads among super-delegates, and so it's possible that group could give her the nomination even while lagging in primaries and caucuses.

If that's not problematical enough, Clinton has called for reinstatement of the Michigan and Florida delegates stripped from those states by the Democratic National Committee for holding their primaries too early. Obama took his name off the Michigan ballot; Clinton left hers on and defeated "uncommitted." She carried Florida by about the margin she held in national polls then -- a margin that has vanished since.

You can hear the cries now, echoing the Florida controversy of 2000. "Count every vote" will be Clinton's cry -- the argument Al Gore's forces made. "Don't change the rules after the game is played" will be Obama's cry -- the argument of the Republican lawyers. The Florida fiasco polarized the nation because the arguments that each side made were in line with its basic ideas of fairness.

Obama fans will see this as an attempt to steal the nomination from the people's choice. Clinton fans will argue that denying representation to the nation's fourth and eighth largest states, both closely divided in the last two elections, would be political suicide. The Democrats' determination to design a system all their constituencies would consider fair threatens to produce a confrontation whose result, whatever it is, will be bitterly regarded by large and important party constituencies as profoundly unfair.

If Obama prevails my guess is that most Clinton supporters will end up voting for him rather than risk giving the presidency to John McCain. If Hillary wins despite Obama leading in pledged delegates, popular votes, and states won, my guess is that Obama voters will flock to the polls in November...to vote for John McCain as a way of punishing Hillary and the party for stealing the nomination from them. One way could mean a Dem victory, the other a party suicide.

I'll talk about this subject and more on Monday's BlogTalkRadio program which you can hear by clicking on the icon. Feel free to call in and join the conversation. The show kicks off at 8pm PT Monday night.

I've expanded Monday's show to 45 minutes to give us plenty of time. The call-in number will be (347) 347-5547.

Other topics for Monday's show include guns on college campuses and a quick look at the Daytona 500. I hope you tune in.