Did Evangelical Leaders Give us John McCain?

Daniel Gilgoff, writing in USA today, does a little post-nomination analysis of the role of evangelical leaders in the GOP primary and how their timid support for Romney may have given us John McCain:

Though he has the support of some conservative Christian figures, including Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas and onetime presidential candidate Gary Bauer, the hatred for McCain in much of the Christian right is irreversible.

"I am convinced Sen. McCain is not a conservative, and in fact, has gone out of his way to stick his thumb in the eyes of those who are," Focus on the Family founder James Dobson said earlier this month, adding that he "will not vote for Sen. John McCain, as a matter of conscience."

Romney, by contrast, had plenty of Christian right patrons, including Bob Jones University's chancellor, Bob Jones III, and Moral Majority co-founder Paul Weyrich. In an interview last year, Dobson acknowledged that "there are conservative Christians who will not vote for (Romney) because of his Mormon faith," but he said that wasn't necessarily "the correct view or my view."

As Dobson warmed to Romney — the two had a getting-to-know-you session at Focus' Colorado Springs headquarters last year — he could have opened a dialogue with his millions of radio listeners about why evangelicals should feel comfortable voting for a Mormon, even if they rejected his theology.

Instead, he took public swipes at Republican candidates Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain, leaving his evangelical fans to deduce his support for Romney and Huckabee by process of elimination.

I don't think James Dobson really has that much influence anymore. GOP voters are much more than one block of evangelicals, and not all evangelicals are that impressed with his political judgement.

The real problem this year was the open primary format in the early races, and a wealth of attractive conservative candidates. Those conservatives split the vote on one side of the spectrum while McCain had that wishy-washy moderate and independent vote all to himself. Conservatives, evangelical and otherwise, were torn over who to support and while one candidate after another fell by the wayside, McCain was left standing because he wasn't relying on the conservative vote to win.

And while it is unfashionably intolerant to say this, Mitt Romney was unable to motivate conservatives and especially evangelicals because he is a Mormon, and most Christians and those who have no church affiliation aren't comfortable with Mormon beliefs. Had two facts been different Romney would have won going away and McCain would have disappeared:

• If Romney had come from a Protestant background, and
• If Romney had demonstrated consistently conservative positions.

Romney's leftward stances on issues like gay marriage and abortion during his early runs for office in Massachusetts killed him with many conservatives who worried that his current positions were flexible, made for this election cycle and could change later. Anyone who saw the YouTube videos of earlier Romney campaign speeches had to feel queasy about his committment to conservative principles.

And, let's not forget the movie star factor. When Fred Thompson signaled an interest in the race many of us got pretty excited that he was the "new Reagan" we were looking for. His position on issues and commanding presence worked well, but his campaign didn't. All that time spent waiting for Fred to emerge cost Romney valuable support in the early primaries.

McCain's timing was perfect in this race. He ran when there were too many good conserative candidates and no clear choice for the voters. His good timing may yet put him in the White House depending on how the war of the Democrats is resolved.

It's too bad, really, because we could have done so much better.

I'll talk about this subject and more on tonight's BlogTalkRadio program which you can hear by clicking on the icon. Feel free to call in and join the conversation. The show kicks off at 8pm PT.

I've expanded tonight's show to 45 minutes to give us plenty of time. The call-in number will be (347) 347-5547.

Other topics for tonight's show include Hillary's plan to win ugly, guns on college campuses and a quick look at the Daytona 500. I hope you tune in.