First Wave of GOP Exit Polls

Here's the first wave of GOP exit polls as reported by Jim Geraghty at the Campaign Spot:

I just got a big pile of exit poll data.

The early wave in California: McCain 40 percent, Romney 36 percent, Huckabee 10 percent.

Fascinating and fun as it is, I remind my readers that this doesn’t tell us that much, as we don’t know what the district-by-district breakdown is. Also, there are three million absentee votes that I’m pretty sure are not included in this. So while these numbers are nice to hear for McCain fans, I take them with even more caution, skepticism and grains of salt than usual.

Missouri: Romney 34 percent, McCain 32 percent, Huckabee 25 percent.

Winner take all. If these numbers hold - and these are early voters, the later waves may change the final a bit — it’s a big, big win for Romney.

Georgia: Huckabee 34 percent, Romney 31 percent, McCain 30 percent.

Now on to the NYC-metro-area states:

New York: McCain 46, Romney 35, Huckabee 10 percent.

New Jersey: McCain 48 percent, Romney 35, Huckabee 9 percent.

Connecticut: McCain 50 percent, Romney 32 percent, Huckabee 7 percent.

More or less what we expected.

Now the big Mitt states:

The early wave in Utah: Romney 91 percent, McCain 5 percent, Huckabee 1 percent.

I think I’m ready to call that one.

Massachusetts: Romney 54, McCain 35.

But in McCain’s home state…

Arizona: McCain 44, Romney 39, Huckabee 8.

That’s a heck of a lot closer than I had expected.

On to the South, where the numbers at this point look good for Huckabee…

Alabama: Huckabee 42 percent, McCain 33 percent, Romney 20 percent.

Tennessee: Huckabee 34, McCain 28, Romney 23.

Arkansas: Huckabee 33, McCain 21, Romney 19.

Oklahoma: McCain 34, Huckabee 32, Romney 27.

A barnburner!

Delaware: Romney 43, McCain 34, Huckabee 18.

Not a big state, but it's winner take all, so I'm sure Team Romney would take it.

Illinois: McCain 47, Romney 31, Huckabee 15.

Stay tuned.