McCain vs. Clinton or Obama - State-by-State

UPDATE 2: New numbers from May 12th
UPDATE: New numbers from April 20th.

The presidential election is not really a national election but a collection of state races which all take place on the same day (I don't call it a national election because the winner is not determined by national popular vote). Karl Rove and Co. have done some work on this year's presidential election, looking at the state-by-state race for president based on current polls, and have come up with some interesting election maps.

The maps were shown on Special Report yesterday, and since I can't find them elsewhere on the web, I did a screen grab from the show. It's a little blurry because of the enlargement, but you can see the colors by state and that will give you an idea of the current state of the race. Red states are polling for McCain, blue for the Democrat, and yellow are toss-ups.

First, let's look at McCain vs. Obama:

Based on today's polls McCain would get 241 electoral votes, Obama 205, with 92 toss-ups. McCain would only need 29 of the toss-up votes to be elected.

Now, McCain vs. Clinton:
This polling shows McCain with 262 electoral votes, Clinton with 166, and 110 toss-ups. McCain would only need 8 of the toss-up votes to win.

Clinton's argument to the superdelegates is that she's a stronger candidate against McCain in the general election. Maybe not.

Of course, this situation is highly fluid and these maps will change frequently during the campaign, but it is interesting to see that in a year where the Democrats are supposed to be all-powerful, they will have a tough road to the White House against McCain.