McCain 270 - Obama 268

The Evans-Novak Political report has done their first analysis of the state-by-state races for president:

Electoral College: While national polls garner attention, they have no direct bearing on choosing our next President. A state-by-state count of electoral votes is the key to analyzing the presidential race.

For the first time this year, we run through all 50 states plus the District of Columbia in order to handicap the presidential race. Outlook: If the election were held today, we see a McCain victory by the narrowest of margins.

The electoral map looks nearly identical to 2004, with Iowa and Colorado swinging into the Democratic camp. Beneath the surface, however, we see Michigan and Pennsylvania becoming more competitive for Republicans.

The election will hinge on two regions: Lake Erie and the Mountain West. An Obama win in New Mexico or Nevada would be enough to tip the scales, but a McCain win in Pennsylvania could put the race out of reach. In the end, as always, it comes down to Ohio, where Obama’s weakness among rural whites could send McCain to the White House. McCain 270, Obama 268.

This is a lot closer than the numbers Karl Rove has had, but he has about 70 electoral votes as "toss-ups" whereas Novak-Evans assigns all the votes regardless of how close.

I don't think the race will end up being that close. There are still plenty of opportunities for Obama's socialism and inexperience to come out and that's going to hurt him in big parts of "bitter America" and "those middle states".