Obama Won't Declare Victory Tomorrow

Last week it looked like the Obama campaign had decided to declare victory upon the completion of the May 20th primaries in Kentucky and Oregon. It appeared that he would finally have the 2,025 delegates needed to win (if you ignore Michigan and Florida, which so far, he has). Although he's been picking up superdelegates at a rate of several a day, they haven't flooded to him in the numbers he would need to actually declare a numerical victory, so it looks like the plans have changed:

MILWAUKIE, Ore. - Concerned about appearing presumptuous or antagonistic towards Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama will not declare victory in the Democratic nomination fight Tuesday in the event he wins enough pledged delegates to claim a majority.

Rather, he'll tiptoe right up to the line, without explicitly asserting the race is over.

While it may sound like an exercise in hair-splitting, the conscious decision not to declare victory is a revealing measure of the sensitivity surrounding overtures that appear to disrespect Clinton and her supporters.

It's also a reflection of the Obama campaign's supreme confidence in the delegate math at this juncture--the campaign now appears secure enough in its commanding position that it no longer feels compelled to declare victory in an attempt to marginalize Clinton.

That marks a departure from the stance the Obama campaign took after his blowout win in North Carolina and narrow loss in Indiana May 6.

An Obama senior adviser, who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, told Politico the next day: "On May 20, we're going to declare victory."

Three days after those contests, Obama hinted that amassing the majority of pledged delegates following Tuesday's Kentucky and Oregon primary elections meant his campaign could claim victory.

"That will be an important day," Obama told NBC's Brian Williams when asked if he would declare victory after the May 20 Kentucky and North Carolina primaries. "If at that point we have the majority of pledged delegates, which is possible, then I think we can make a pretty strong claim that we've got the most runs and it's the ninth inning and we've won."

The NBC quote was widely interpreted as a move by Obama to end to the race, but context was missing: He went on to state that he wants to "let this play out."

After an ABC News blog used Obama's NBC quote to question whether he was making a "huge miscalculation," the campaign sought a clarification, which was posted, saying Obama was not talking about winning the nomination but rather an "important metric."

Indeed, Obama aides have spent the last week trying to reverse the perception that he will declare victory May 20 - saying instead that he will simply recognize a milestone - in an attempt at message shifting that underscores the sensitive nature of this phase of the campaign.

When asked again Wednesday whether he still planned to declare victory following the results from Oregon and Kentucky, Obama dispatched the suggestion with a cool stare.

"We will declare that we have the majority of pledged delegates," Obama said, giving the question only three seconds of his time before pivoting towards the front cabin of his campaign plane.

Obama said Sunday that he has not sent mixed messages.

Obama has nothing but mixed messages.

Michael Barone offers an important reason why it would be premature for Obama to declare victory - he won' t have the numbers:

Obama is not likely to have enough superdelegates lined up by next Tuesday night. As this is written, RealClearpolitics.com has Obama at 1,891 delegates. Current polling gives him 58 percent of the two-candidate vote in Oregon and 34 percent of the two-candidate vote in Kentucky. That should give him, under the proportional representation rules, about 17 delegates in Kentucky and about 30 in Oregon. That puts him at 1,938. That means he needs to add 87 superdelegates between Friday and Tuesday night. He's been getting four or five a day, it seems, even after his bad defeat in West Virginia, but he needs a lot more than that.

Actually, he needs more than 87. Conversations with Democratic superdelegates and insiders have convinced me that no one wants to be identified as the superdelegate who single-handedly decided the Democratic nomination—that is, who rejected either the first woman or the first black with a serious chance to be nominated. I expect the Obama campaign to announce a whole bunch of superdelegates at once that, together, put him well over the top. My guess is that the Obama campaign is trying to compile such a list, and that it will come up short.

The Dem superdelegate that puts Obama over the top can kiss any future contributions from Emily's List and NOW goodbye. They better choose an unelected superdelegate to make that announcement.

Given Obama's latest "global test" gaffe, there's all the more reason for Clinton to stay in and continue to argue that she's the most electable candidate in the race. Obama's victory pronouncement, if made tomorrow, would certainly be premature.