Democrat Party Identification Tumbles

In this year when the media tells us that it's cool to be a Democrat, why are fewer people claiming that title?

During July, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell two percentage points to 39.2%. That’s the first time since January that the number of Democrats has fallen below 41% (see history from January 2004 to present).

While the number of Democrats declined, there was virtually no change in the number of Republicans. In July, 31.6% said they were Republicans, the fourth straight month that number has been below 31.4% and 31.6%.

The Democrats now have a 7.6 percentage point advantage over the Republicans, down from a 9.5 percentage point advantage in June and 10.1 percentage points in May.

I'm sure bailing out of Washington without acting on the drilling issue will bring people flocking back to the party.

And, August is a notorious Democrat killer. Just ask President Dukakis and President Kerry. Both had big leads...until August. Obama doesn't even have a big lead to brag about, and frankly, if he's not up by 10 points on election day, he probably won't win. The Bradley Obama effect will wreak havoc with the late polling, and especially the exit polls.

Don't believe me? Look at this:

"This election is exceptionally tricky."

-- Pollster Peter Hart, quoted by the Wall Street Journal, who estimates that 10% of current Democrats and independents who say they support Sen. Barack Obama "may not be giving a fully honest answer."

Obama's gonna need a big, big lead.