Gustav is Going to be Bad

Take a look at the latest forecast track for Hurricane Gustav:

Now look at Katrina's track as forecast a day before the storm hit:


Katrina actually moved a little further east at landfall which initially was a blessing for New Orleans since it spared them the worst of the winds. However, hurricanes rotate counter-clockwise, and the winds whipping around the north and west sides of the storm piled up the water from Lake Pontchartrain and caused the levy failures which flooded much of the city. As bad as Katrina was, based on the tracks shown above, Gustav has the potential to be a much more serious storm.

One model has the storm edging a little further east which could put New Orleans within the area where the worst of the winds and storm surge will be. Once again it's likely that the bowl that makes up New Orleans and surrounding areas will be filled with water, and this time the wind damage is likely to be much worse. I'm afraid Katrina is going to look like a Sunday School picnic compared to Gustav when all is said and done. As I write this it's a strong Cat 4 storm with the potential to hit Cat 5. I've seen a strong Cat 3 storm up close and personal. I can't imagine what a Cat 4 or 5 would look like.

In 2005 House Speaker Denny Hastert was thoroughly chastised when he questioned whether New Orleans should even be rebuilt, given the geography that's so prone to flooding. This storm may prove the former Speaker quite correct.