Hurricane Headline of the Day

From Time:

Obama Returning to Chicago to Handle Gustav

Is Chicago in danger?

For Your Hurricane Entertainment

Try the Fox News Live Cams (there's a link at FoxNews.com). A couple of their field reporters, Geraldo Rivera in New Orleans and Steve Harrigan in Waveland, MS, have live feeds going and it gives you a behind the scenes look at the storm coverage from the field reporters point of view. They also have a live feed from the French Quarter.

I've been watching Harrigan for awhile (he just got back from the war in Georgia, so it must be nice to be anywhere where there's no shooting) and he has been fighting some audio problems, but it's entertaining nonetheless. The next hour or so should see the strongest part of the storm in that area.

The New Orleans camera is showing some torn up awnings and I just saw a big tree branch break off and fall. It missed Geraldo (insert your own snarky comment here).

Gustav Weakens

The reports from the hurricane folks are encouraging. It appears that Gustav has deteriorated pretty significantly. The south and east sides of the eye wall have disappeared due to an inflow of dry air, and that's the section that posed the biggest threat to New Orleans. It looks like they're in for a day of decent rain and some wind, but not the devastation it appeared they would get yesterday.

Hopefully this means the GOP Convention can return to the regular schedule on Tuesday. There will still be flooding rains in parts of Louisiana and Texas, but I don't think the situation will require the kind of deference the GOP gave it today.

The evacuation, as ordered and managed by Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal, has appeared to be extremely successful. Something like 2 million people were removed from harm's way. The Obamessiah was pontificating that he hope we had "learned the lessons of Katrina". Well, yes we have. We got the incompetent Democrat governor out of Baton Rouge, and even Ray "School Bus" Nagin managed to look less foolish this time.

It's not over yet, but I think once things settle down it will be apparent that the Federal government's emergency plans, in coordination with State and Local officials, worked extremely well.

Democrats must be very disappointed.

GOP Cancels Events for Labor Day, Obama Goes Ahead With His

I wouldn't have expected anything less. The GOP shows some class and cancels their political activities for today while Louisiana is getting pounded by Gustav, but Obama goes on with his:

Obama celebrates the holiday Monday with an afternoon Labor Day BBQ in Monroe, Michigan at the Plumbers and Pipefitters Hall Local 671.

He’ll also host a “Rally for America’s Workers” at the annual Laborfest rally in Milwaukee in the evening.

I wonder how many of "America's Workers" are losing their homes today in Gustav?

UPDATE: Obama shows up in Michigan, but then cancels speech saying it's "not appropriate at this time". Of course, by showing up he accomplished his political purpose. Cancelling the event would have been more "appropriate".

Gustav Does Have Some Political Advantages for the GOP

Nobody in the GOP (or in Louisiana for that matter) wanted a major hurricane to hit the Gulf Coast during their convention, and certainly no Republican is looking at the storm in terms of it being a political plus. It's going to take a tremendous amount of attention away from the GOP at a time when the major news story should have been McCain and Palin.

However, even at times like this political pundits have a job to do, and Noemie Emerie at the Weekly Standard outlines a few political advantages provided by Hurricane Gustav:

(1) Gets Bush out of St. Paul, where he would have given a speech that the media and the Democrats would have pounced on, and puts him in the eye of the storm, doing the nation’s business, where he will be welcomed and greeted by friendly Republican governors.

(2) Puts the spotlight on those friendly Republican governors--Haley Barbour, Charlie Crist, and most of all, Bobby Jindal, (the male Sarah Palin)--who will do their jobs competently, in contrast with the mess made three years ago by the Democratic governor of Louisiana, whose performance even at the time was compared unfavorably to that of Barbour and Jeb Bush, then Florida’s governor.

(3) Puts the spotlight especially upon Jindal, a huge favorite of and rising star in the Republican party, who has the chance now to prove himself under pressure on a truly huge stage.

(4) Cuts short the hours and hours of media chatter, which would doubtless have focused on a) how tarnished the ‘Republican brand’ is in this season; b) the immensely high bar set by Barack Obama, and c) the immensely strong current the party is swimming against.

(5) Cuts short the exposure given the ‘Republican brand’ by cutting short coverage of more conventional (and boring) Republican figures and boilerplate, and focusing largely on the three starring figures--Jindal, McCain, and Sarah Palin (the pale Bobby Jindal)--who are diverse, unorthodox, have cross-over potential, and are decidedly outside of the box.

(6) Eliminates the danger of a direct comparison between the oratorical talents of McCain and Obama, as a conventional acceptance speech will be no longer possible, and anything McCain says in this context will have its own innate power.

(7) Takes McCain from a setting in which he’s uncomfortable (partisan leader of a partisan army) to one--national leader rallying a country in crisis--which suits him much better.

(8) Takes the convention from the traditional role of being an orgy of enemy-bashing to one of national service and charity.

(9) Gives fools like former DNC chairman Don Fowler a chance to wholly embarrass themselves by chortling over the inconveniences he imagined the storm would inflict on the Republican party. Watch what you wish for, my friend.

That last point is especially appropriate, and there will be comparisons between how MaCain-Palin respond to this crisis and how Obama-Biden respond. I don't think McCain has anything to worry about there.

What a Difference a Governor Makes

I'm watching Gov. Bobby Jindal's pre-Gustav press conference and what a difference there is between his performance to date and the performance of his predecessor, Kathleen "Overwhelmed" Blanco. Just listening to the way he's running this emergency gives me a great deal of confidence that Louisiana is going to come out of this storm in much better shape than they did in 2005.

Former Dem Chair Don Fowler Issues Classic Non-Apology Apology UPDATE: Moore too

Former Dem Party Chairman Don Fowler really stepped in it when he was caught laughing about Hurricane Gustav and claiming it proved that "God was on their side" because it had the potential to devastate New Orleans like Katrina did. Today, under a lot of fire from within and without his party, Don Fowler issued the classic non-apology apology:

ABC News' Teddy Davis Reports: Former DNC Chairman Don Fowler apologized on Sunday for joking in a private conversation that the timing of Hurricane Gustav demonstrates that God is on the side of the Democrats.

"If this offended anybody, I personally apologize," Fowler told ABC News. "It was a mistake, and it was a satirical statement made in jest. And one that I clearly don't believe." ...

"One doesn't anticipate that one's private conversation will be surreptitiously taped by some right-wing nutcase," said Fowler. "But that's the nature of what we're dealing with."

One also does not expect high ranking Democrats to be so callous about their fellow citizens.

Of course he believes exactly what he said. And why do I call this a "non-apology apology"? Because he didn't just say "I personally apologize", he had to qualify it with "If this offended anybody". That's a stupid statement because it offended a lot of people, but what he's really saying is "if you're dumb enough to believe I meant what I said, I'll pretend to apologize to you".

They ought to play that video at the RNC...about every 30 minutes or so.

UPDATE: Michael Moore jumps into the non-apology apology game:

Friday, we noted Michael Moore's comments on MSNBC describing the timing of Hurricane Gustav (during the Republican convention) as divine intervention.

Today, Moore -- who almost immediately came under fire for his remarks -- responded by releasing an "open letter to God."

In it, the filmmaker urged the Almighty: "So please God, let the storm die out at sea. It's done enough damage already. If you do this one favor for me, I promise not to invoke your name again."

At which point God said "Depart from me, I never knew you."

Monday's Convention Proceedings Will be Cut Short

The McCain campaign is announcing that Monday's convention activities will begin as planned at 3pm, but will be dramatically curtailed because of Hurricane Gustav:

ST. PAUL — The Republican National Convention has suspended all but the most necessary activities to constitute a convention Monday and then will adjourn, John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee announced Sunday.

The convention “will suspend all activities except those that are absolutely necessary,” McCain said. “We hope to resume some normal activities but frankly that is the hands of God.”

McCain Campaign Manager Rick Davis said that additional activities will be determined on a day-by-day basis. He added that all activities at the convention will be procedural and not political.

Davis said the only critical activities of the convention are its establishment through the gaveling of the opening session, the certification of the Republican National Committee delegates and the nomination of both McCain for president and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as vice president. The first two can occur on the Monday afternoon session. The nominations had been scheduled for Wednesday.

In order to hold the convention, a quorum — or 50 percent plus one — of the delegates need to be present. Davis said the quorum will be called at 3 p.m. ET Monday and will last a couple hours.

Davis said he encouraged the speakers to attend and deliver their speeches, but he did not want to speculate on whether McCain would attend and called speculation he might not attend as “completely immature” and “outside the scope of specificity.”

I'll bet the TV networks are loving this. They've got millions of dollars wrapped up in equipment sitting in St. Paul, not to mention hours of coverage they had planned to fill with talking heads and floor speeches. The coverage will likely now ignore the convention and concentrate on Gustav.

There is a certain amount of business that has to get done, but the GOP could certainly use some of that TV time to help raise funds for Hurricane victims. If I was McCain I would announce that all my campaign offices around the country can be used as drop-off locations for money and supplies. You rent a truck in the major cities, slap a McCain-Palin sign on it, go around and pick the stuff up and deliver it wherever the Red Cross wants it to go. You satisfy two needs with one effort.

The GOP can't control the timing of the hurricane, but they can beat Obama to the punch on generating humanitarian support.

By the way, I haven't heard any announcements from Obama suspending his campaign activities this week? Should the Dems continue to campaign while Americans in the Red states suffer?

UPDATE: Here's the official announcement:

SAINT PAUL, Minn. -- At the direction of Sen. John McCain, the 2008 Republican National Convention announced substantial changes to the convention's program and actions being taken to help with Hurricane Gustav relief efforts. On Monday, all program activities beyond the official business that must be conducted in accordance with party rules will be cancelled. Among the other actions announced today are the formation of the Affected States Working Group, the establishment of an Affected States Information Center, and the chartering of a DC-9 to transport affected delegates.

Rick Davis, campaign manager for McCain 2008, announced that the upcoming Republican National Nominating Convention is making serious revisions to the convention program and surrounding activities. Davis said, "We are deeply concerned about the safety and welfare of the residents of the Gulf State region. Our top priority is to assist those who will be affected by Hurricane Gustav. This is not a time for politics or celebration; it is a time for us to come together as Americans and assist the residents of the Gulf States."

Davis also discussed what the changes in the program will mean for the nomination process. "In order for the Republican Party to officially exist and for Senator McCain to qualify for the ballot, we are - by law - required to conduct specific official business. At this point, our program on Monday has been scaled back and will only include what party rules governing the nomination of our candidates for president and vice president require. We will perform the official business as required. In addition, we have set aside time to make delegates and Americans watching our proceedings at home aware of what they can do to assist in relief efforts designed to help those who will be affected by Hurricane Gustav."

Davis concluded: "At some point between Monday and Thursday evening, we will convene once again to complete the activities needed to qualify Senator McCain and Governor Palin for the ballot in all 50 states. Beyond that, all we can say is that we will monitor what is happening and make decisions about other convention business as details become available."

Conservative Base Finally Has Something to Shout About

I know the feelings I had on Friday as I watched Sarah Palin took her first steps in the presidential campaign. To say the least, I was thrilled. As a conservative John McCain pretty much left me cold, but for the first time during this campaign I could actually see myself voting for him...well, not him, really, but her.

I'm not alone:

ST. PAUL, Minn. — The selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate has electrified conservative activists, providing a boost of energy to the GOP nominee-in-waiting from a key constituency that had been previously had been lukewarm — at best — about him.

By tapping the anti-abortion and pro-gun Alaska governor just ahead of his convention, which is set to start here Monday, McCain hasn’t just won approval from a skeptical Republican base — he’s ignited a wave of elation and emotion that has led some grass-roots activists to weep with joy.

Serious questions remain about McCain’s pick — exactly how much he knows about her and her positions, past and present, on key issues. But for the worker bee core of the party that is essential to any Republican victory, there are no doubts.

“I woke up and my e-mail was just going crazy,” said Charmaine Yoest, head of the legislative arm of Americans United for Life and a former top official in Mike Huckabee’s presidential campaign. “And then when it was announced — it was like you couldn’t breathe.”

The media elite — as well as elite members of the GOP consulting community — have all but mocked Palin as a former small-town mayor with zero Washington experience. But that view of her totally misses the cultural resonance she carries to crucial Republican power centers and could not be more at odds with the jubilation felt among true believers that one of their own is on the ticket.

Palin, say conservative activists, has instantly changed how they feel about McCain’s campaign and spurred them to go to work for the Republican ticket.

First, though, they’re expressing their newfound fondness for McCain with their checkbooks. Since tapping Palin, the campaign has raised nearly $7 million online, according to McCain aides.

Most importantly for McCain, the two constituencies who are most energized by Palin just happen to be the twin grassroots pillars of the GOP: anti-abortion activists and pro-Second Amendment enthusiasts and sportsmen. Without these two camps making phone calls, stuffing envelopes and knocking on doors, Republican presidential candidates would severely lack for volunteers. They are critical to the health of the conservative coalition that has dominated Republican politics for a generation.

Republicans say the primary source for the passion can be found in Palin’s example and authenticity.

What has amazed me about the reactions to Palin is not what the Democrats are saying, because sneering condescension is par for the course from those morons. The real surprise has been the sneering condescension from a surprising number of high-profile Republicans. As I read the talking points they were creating for the Democrats I found myself feeling like Casey Stengel looking at the '62 Mets and asking "Can't anybody here play this game?"

After reading a number of comments at The Corner that I thought were self-destructive, I sent an email to Kathryn Jean Lopez who runs that place:

Subject: Why Are Republicans Eating Their Own?

K-Lo - I'm trying to figure out why so many members of the Republican pundit class are so pessimistic about Sarah Palin, to the point of writing the Democrat talking points for them? David Frum is writing their ad copy, and any number of others are doing all the Dems oppo research work for them.

Doesn't anybody on our side want to win? Palin's our VP nominee for better or worse (I personally think the choice was brilliant), but we're cutting our own throats if we can't just shut up about any negatives. Some of the pundits are so busy trying to show the world how politically astute they are they're ignoring the damage they're doing in the process.

As I said on my blog, this was a Reaganesque move on the part of McCain. Reagan knew how to bypass the media and the chattering class and speak straight to the voters. McCain just did the same thing with the Palin choice. My readers are ecstatic about the choice and they're just average run-of-the-mill Republicans. Some of our pundits need to put a cork in it and leave the opposition to the Dems.

Rick Moore
HolyCoast.com

Now, I'm not saying that we should just blindly ignore flaws in Republican candidates. What I'm saying is let the Dems figure that stuff out for themselves. We don't need to provide the spotlight on our own candidates.

It's really a shame that Hurricane Gustav is going to make a mess of GOP Convention plans because it would have been quite a scene if the conservatives were able to celebrate Palin's nomination as vigorously as they would like to. But things will probably have to be toned down quite a bit, and there's a possibility that neither candidate will actually make their acceptance speeches in Minneapolis.

The storm, however, will not dampen the new-found enthusiasm for the GOP ticket. The harder the Dems hit at Palin, but more entrenched the support for her will become among Republicans, and I still believe that after watching Hillary take a beating during the primaries, there will be a lot of Dem women who won't appreciate seeing the same treatment given to another woman.

All I ask is that the self-important Republican pundit class that's determined to undermine the campaign either get on board, go join the Obama campaign, or shut the heck up.

Gustav is Going to be Bad

Take a look at the latest forecast track for Hurricane Gustav:

Now look at Katrina's track as forecast a day before the storm hit:


Katrina actually moved a little further east at landfall which initially was a blessing for New Orleans since it spared them the worst of the winds. However, hurricanes rotate counter-clockwise, and the winds whipping around the north and west sides of the storm piled up the water from Lake Pontchartrain and caused the levy failures which flooded much of the city. As bad as Katrina was, based on the tracks shown above, Gustav has the potential to be a much more serious storm.

One model has the storm edging a little further east which could put New Orleans within the area where the worst of the winds and storm surge will be. Once again it's likely that the bowl that makes up New Orleans and surrounding areas will be filled with water, and this time the wind damage is likely to be much worse. I'm afraid Katrina is going to look like a Sunday School picnic compared to Gustav when all is said and done. As I write this it's a strong Cat 4 storm with the potential to hit Cat 5. I've seen a strong Cat 3 storm up close and personal. I can't imagine what a Cat 4 or 5 would look like.

In 2005 House Speaker Denny Hastert was thoroughly chastised when he questioned whether New Orleans should even be rebuilt, given the geography that's so prone to flooding. This storm may prove the former Speaker quite correct.

Republican National Telethon

As Democrats rejoice over the prospects of a major hurricane hitting and destroying parts of America, John McCain and the Republicans are making plans to convert their National Convention into a telethon for providing aid and support to victims:

John McCain and the GOP are considering scrapping political speeches and turning their Minnesota convention into a "service program" to help victims of Hurricane Gustav, The Post has learned.

Sources told The Post that McCain himself might visit the Gulf Coast during the week of the Republican National Convention, which begins Monday. McCain is not scheduled to speak until Thursday.

The contingency plan - a worst-case scenario if the storm devastates Gulf Coast areas - would turn Republicans into Red Cross-type volunteers who would help collect donations, food and goods for storm victims.

McCain's campaign motto is "Country First," and he said helping people during an emergency will take precedence over accepting the nomination.

I think that's a brilliant ideat. Nothing would demonstrate "Country First" more than abandoning the usual convention falderal and devoting that time to helping their fellow Americans. Just think what they could accomplish in those four days with all the networks sitting right there ready to broadcast. I think viewers would see pretty quickly which is the serious party and which is the celebrity party.

Dems Rejoicing Over Gustav

Democrats had better be careful what they say and when they say it. At Red State the guy who blogs by the name "absentee" happened to sit on a flight behind former DNC Chairman Don Fowler and a South Carolina congressman. He describes their conversation this way:

On a plane from Denver to Charlotte following the Democrats' convention, I found myself seated behind former National Chairman of the Democratic National Committee Don Fowler and Congressman John Spratt of South Carolina. Their conversation was interesting to say the least.

For example, they made fun of Sarah Palin for several minutes, Fowler calling her "Dan Quayle" on steroids and Spratt creatively describing her as "just terrible." They both agreed that, "Other than the simple fact that she's a female," she has nothing to offer.

Then there was this gem of a moment from Fowler:

So you see, it's funny. That New Orleans will get a hurricane. That's funny because it is due to hit when President Bush is scheduled to speak. Isn't that cool? Fowler isn't the only one who thinks so, just ask Michael Moore.

We all know Democrats used and use Katrina as a political football as callously as possible. Here's a candid moment showing some can hardly wait for another one.

All Class.

Do you think if the Dems had it in their power to turn this storm away that they'd do it? I don't. They have more to gain politically from the death and destruction it will cause.

UPDATE: Fowler issues classic non-apology apology.

McCain May Postpone Convention

UPDATE: The Convention's Day 1 activities will be sharply curtailed.

The Republicans are really spooked that Hurricane Gustav will give the Dems an opportunity to demogogue Hurricane Katrina all over again, and they may postpone the GOP convention:

John McCain said the Republican National Convention may be postponed as federal officials said Hurricane Gustav was gathering to a devastating Category 5 as it headed toward star-crossed New Orleans.

“It just wouldn't be appropriate to have a festive occasion while a near-tragedy or a terrible challenge is presented in the form of a natural disaster,” McCain told Chris Wallace of “Fox News Sunday,” in an interview taped for tomorrow. “So we're monitoring it from day to day and I'm saying a few prayers, too.”

McCain also said: “I'm afraid, Chris, that we may have to look at that situation and we'll try to monitor it. I've been talking to Govs. Jindal, Barbour, Riley. Chris, I've been talking to all of them.”

Officials at the convention, which is to open Monday in St. Paul, Minn., tell Politico they are figuring out how to handle the formal business of nominating McCain even if some delegations are not able to attend.

The officials also are preparing program contingencies in case such speakers as Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal have to cancel.

Maria Cino, the convention’s president and chief executive officer, said in a statement to Politico: "Like all Americans, our prayers are with those who will be affected by Hurricane Gustav. We continue to closely monitor the movement of the storm and are considering necessary contingencies.

“We are in communication with the Gulf state governors to make sure the convention is taking all the appropriate steps as the hurricane progresses. The safety of our affected delegations is our first priority and preparing for Gustav comes before anything else."

I think there's a way to handle this without postponing the convention (as I outlined here), but politics being what it is, Gustav may force the GOP's hand - especially if it comes ashore as a Cat 4 or 5 in a heavily populated area. However, each towering thunderhead comes with a silver lining, and here's the silver lining in this situation. Until McCain formerly accepts his parties nomination he's free to spend as much money as he wants on the campaign, and with the Palin announcement, the funds have been pouring in. Because he chose to take public campaign funding, once he accepts the nomination he's limited to the $84 million or so the government will give him while Obama can spend whatever he can raise.

Delaying the acceptance a bit longer will give McCain more time without spending limits, and less time restricted by the Fed funds. It could work to his advantage in a number of different ways.

No Shelter for the Stupid

What a difference it makes having a Republican governor in Louisiana:

NEW ORLEANS — Police with bullhorns plan to go street to street this weekend with a tough message about getting out ahead of Hurricane Gustav: This time there will be no shelter of last resort. The doors to the Superdome will be locked. Those who stay will be on their own.

New forecasts Friday made it increasingly clear that New Orleans will get some kind of hit — direct or indirect — by early next week. That raised the likelihood people would have to flee, and the city suggested a full-scale evacuation call could come as soon as Sunday.

Those among New Orleans’ estimated 310,000 to 340,000 residents who ignore orders to leave accept “all responsibility for themselves and their loved ones,” the city’s emergency preparedness director, Jerry Sneed, has warned.

As Katrina approached in 2005, as many as 30,000 people who either could not or would not evacuate jammed the Louisiana Superdome and the riverfront convention center. They spent days waiting for rescue in squalid conditions. Some died.

Stung by the images that flashed across the world, including the photo of an elderly woman dead in her wheelchair, her bodied covered with a blanket, officials promised to find a better way.

This time, the city has taken steps to ensure no one has an excuse not to leave. The state has a $7 million contract to provide 700 buses to evacuate the elderly, the sick and anyone around the region without transportation.

During Katrina the city had lots of buses too. Unfortunately, they were all under water.

Idiot lefty Michael Moore think the landfall of a hurricane in New Orleans during the GOP convention is a "proof that there's a God in heaven". He's thrilled at the potential for death and destruction as long as it might possibly be used again Republicans.

However, he better be careful what he wishes for because if the state functions remarkably better during this storm than during Katrina it won't be hard to point to the difference in the state government as a major reason. The incompetent Democrats who ran Louisiana in 2005 got a complete pass on the responsibility for their problems during Katrina as the press rallied around the notion that everything bad was Bush's fault. If I was a senior Republican, I'd make sure any successes in this storm were trumpeted.

The good news is the storm's track seems to be taking it away from New Orleans. The bad news is it's moving closer to Houston, and all along that area there are oil production facilities. It's now a Cat 4 - very dangerous.

How Should the GOP Respond to Hurricane Gustav?

I'm going to put myself in the position of Republican Convention spokesman being interviewed by some network stooge intent on making the GOP look bad because a hurricane is going to hit Louisiana during the Republican Convention:

Network Stooge: "Mr. HolyCoast, given the beating the president and the GOP took in 2005 because of their slow response to Hurricane Katrina, leaving an entire city of black people to drown, are you afraid that continuing with the convention will look bad in the eyes of the voters?"

GOP Spokesman Mr. HolyCoast: "Well, Stooge, as you know despite Barack Obama's promise to reduce sea levels should he be elected, he's still only a candidate so he hasn't had a chance to get that done yet and there's not much any of us mere mortals can do to control a monster storm like Gustav. The timing of any hurricane is unfortunate, but since conventions are held in August, a conflict like this is always a possibility. Thank goodness we didn't book the Superdome this year.

First of all, all GOP elected officials in areas likely to be affected by the storm will be at their posts doing what they were elected to do...serving the people. Governors Perry of Texas, Jindal of Louisiana, Barbour of Mississippi and Riley of Alabama will all be in their home states overseeing any rescue and recovery efforts. Other GOP officials at the federal and state levels will be doing their jobs to serve the people who elected them.

Senator McCain and Gov. Palin will be watching the situation closely and will do whatever they can do to assist. A visit to the affected area is not out of the question.

As far as the convention itself goes, as both you and the Democrats know, this is a huge undertaking, some 18 months in the planning process. Hundreds of contracts have been issued required specific performance at a specific time, and you can't quickly undo or change those arrangements. The convention center, hotels, flights, and other arrangements cannot be moved on short notice. Consequently, those GOP officials who are from areas that aren't likely to be affected by Gustav will be in Minneapolis and will conduct the convention's business as planned.

Although the Democrats and your fellow Network Stooges will try and make us look bad for continuing with our business, there's no doubt that the Democrats would do the same thing if they were in our place (except, of course, they don't have any Gulf state governors).

Next question.

It's Time to Leave New Orleans

So says Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground:

It's time to leave New Orleans
Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, ten or so feet below sea level. This is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you. If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday--sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush--and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there's no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don't test those Category 3 rated--but untested--levees. Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating--Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations have already begun, which is a good idea.

The people of New Orleans can thank their lucky stars that both the state and federal government is much more prepared to deal with this storm than they were for Katrina. With Gov. Bobby Jindal leading the state, at least this time they won't get a governor who's overwhelmed by the whole thing.

Gustav Could Make or Break McCain

With soon-to-be Hurricane Gustav churning below Cuba and aiming toward Louisiana, the landfall of Gustav could be a defining moment for the GOP and John McCain.

DENVER — Mindful of the pitfalls of hosting cocktail parties while Gulf Coast residents are being evacuated, John McCain’s campaign suggested Thursday that Republicans could postpone their upcoming national convention in St. Paul if Tropical Storm Gustav makes landfall over the weekend.

Accu-Weather storm trackers say nothing is impeding Gustav from turning into a hurricane before it makes landfall in the United States. Maximum sustained winds could reach 111 miles per hour.

“The storm poses a serious threat to lives and property next week along the Gulf Coast. All interests from the Florida Panhandle to South Texas should closely monitor the storm, prepare an emergency plan and stock up on supplies,” the weather agency wrote in a statement early Thursday afternoon.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal has already said he would skip the convention, scheduled to start Monday and last through Thursday, if a hurricane barrels down on New Orleans and the Gulf Coast just days after the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds said delaying the start time is a possibility.

“Senator McCain has always been sensitive to national crises — in the 2000 race, he postponed his announcement because of the situation in the Balkans, and we are monitoring the situation very closely,” Bounds said.

This storm will probably come ashore on Tuesday morning somewhere around central Louisiana. On Fox a little while ago Dick Morris (former Clinton advisor) suggested that McCain ought to cancel whatever else he has scheduled and get to the affected area as quickly as he can get in there. He doesn't have to be in Minneapolis until Thursday night, so there's no reason why he couldn't spend Wednesday down there doing what he can to comfort the afflicted and show the flag for himself and the GOP. And frankly, there's no reason why he couldn't give his acceptance speech from the hard hit area. With satellite transmission capability, he could be anywhere and broadcast back to Minnesota. That would be impressive.

Some folks will object claiming that it's either a photo op or a hindrance to rescue operations, but he should go anyway. The pictures of George Bush flying over New Orleans in Air Force One instead of getting on the ground with the first responders have haunted his administration and the GOP for three years.

Thankfully, Louisiana now has some competent leadership at the state level, and I think New Orleans learned a thing or two from Katrina, so whatever happens down there it shouldn't be as ugly as 2005.

Gustav Still Pointed at New Orleans

This track can't make a lot of people in New Orleans, or for that matter Republicans headed to Minneapolis, too thrilled:


This track is nearly identical to the track of Hurricane Katrina, taking the storm just east of New Orleans and devastating coastal Mississippi with storm surge again. It's estimated that it will become a Category 3 storm when it hits the very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico. There's still plenty of room for movement (at five days out the potential error is usually around 300 miles). However, if it takes this track it will completely dominate the news and will pretty much knock the Republican Convention right off the front pages, with the exception of the multitude of reports linking this storm to Katrina, President Bush, Republicans, and the poor federal response.

Hurricane Gustav

It looks like the Gulf states may be in for the biggest threat of this hurricane season with the rapidly intensifying Hurricane Gustav headed their way:

Gustav is now a hurricane (Cat 1) with winds of 85 mph (hurricane hunters are finding winds in excess of 100 mph right now as they fly through the storm). The track is now showing this will be a major hurricane (Cat 3 at least) by the weekend moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Most models have Gustav over the Northwest Caribbean or the SW Gulf of Mexico by Saturday/Sunday. The steering factor here will be a ridge of high pressure and how strong it is to keep Gustav on a westward track.

Later on this week, Gustav will be over extremely warm water and favorable conditions to strengthen, so rapid intensification is very possible. One of the models has this as a Cat 5 storm by the weekend. Certainly not out of the question.

Landfall won't occur until sometime next week, and on the current track it could become the third and strongest storm to hit Texas this season. This one has the potential to be a real mess.

UPDATE: It looks like the track may take it more north than west which could send a major hurricane into..wait for it...New Orleans, just in time for the GOP convention. One wise blogger wrote this in September of 2005:

...why should taxpayers be required to reset the pins of New Orleans just so the next big hurricane can knock them all down again?

Is Gustav the big wet bowling ball that's going to make that statement prescient? Another hurricane devastating New Orleans would not help the GOP cause this fall because it will bring back all the memories of a mishandled federal response. It will also, however, remind people of the folly of rebuilding a sinking city 16 feet below sea level.

Unfortunately, Ray "School Bus" Nagin is still mayor of that town, so we can probably count on more incompetence from him (better get some cots to the Superdome). The good news for Louisiana residents is they now have a governor in Bobby Jindal who knows what he's doing and won't be overwhelmed by circumstances like the previous governor was.

Stay tuned - this could be big.

UPDATE 2 - Oil prices soar on fears that Gustav could devastate Gulf oil production facilities:

PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) - Hurricane Gustav hit the southern coast of vulnerable Haiti on Tuesday and could become the first major storm to threaten U.S. oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico since the devastating 2005 hurricane season.

Oil futures rallied sharply as traders watched Gustav's potential threat to U.S. energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico and were up around 1 percent by mid-afternoon.

Most computer models used to predict hurricane tracks showed Gustav headed toward Louisiana and Texas, areas where offshore rigs produce a quarter of U.S. crude oil and 15 percent of its natural gas and which were slammed by hurricanes Katrina and Rita three years ago.