A November 4th Prediction

UPDATE: You can read my original prediction below, but after a series of boneheaded moves by McCain and the complete tanking of the economy, I've revised my expectations for Nov. 4th. I think it will be a blowout:

*Original post below*
In honor of the 4th Blogiversary of HolyCoast.com, I'm going to go waaaaay out on a limb and give you my prediction for November 4th. Of course, lots of things could change (and will), but given the current dynamics of the race, I don't think this is too far out of the realm of possibility. First, the electoral map, courtesy of the " Make Your Own Electoral Map" tool from RealClearPolitics:


The GOP keeps Colorado, Missouri, Ohio and Florida, loses Iowa, but gains Pennsylvania. This is actually my conservative estimate. Right now Washington, Minnesota and Michigan are toss-ups and could also swing toward the GOP. I think Minnesota is most likely, followed by Washington and we can thank Sarah Palin for that. The black vote in Michigan may overwhelm the GOP. They like their recessions up there and they'll probably vote to stay in their single-state Democrat-controlled recession until they drive the last employer out.

Popular Vote: The electoral vote total would suggest an easy win by McCain in the popular vote as well, but I think there's an excellent chance that we'll have a split decision again this year with the electoral vote going to McCain and the popular vote going to Obama. A couple of things could influence that:

• Some of the very populous states that Obama will win such as California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois and Massachusetts he'll win very big. The urban vote is likely to give him large margins of victory in those states. Conversely, McCain is not likely to win as big in other states - they'll be much closer. With large margins in some big states and close margins in many others, Obama could win the popular vote. If that happens, the cries that McCain's presidency is illegitimate will begin the moment the race is called. There will also be a move to amend the constitution to eliminate the electoral college, a move that will fail.
• Secondly, if McCain is doing very well early in the evening, especially if there are early calls in his favor for states like Florida, Ohio and especially Pennsylvania, Republicans in the west might just figure the race is over, McCain wins, and they don't need to make a late trip to the polls. That could also skew vote totals to Obama.
• With that second point in mind and looking at 2000 as an example, I expect the networks to make quick calls on any state Obama will win and slow calls on any state McCain will win. I also expect to hear about exit polls showing Obama winning some states that will in fact go to McCain (the "Bradley effect").

Congress: Although the generic congressional ballot is now almost tied, I'm not sure there will be enough momentum to turn over enough seats in Congress to change the majority in either house. I think there's now a good chance that the GOP will pick up some seats in the House from first-term Dems who narrowly won in 2006, but they'll probably still be on the congressional short end.

Believe it or not, this could actually work to McCain's benefit. If it becomes pretty clear late in the campaign that the Dems will retain control of Congress, there are lots of voters who prefer a split government and may move to McCain just to keep the Dems from running it all.

That's not to say that the Obama campaign couldn't suffer a more complete meltdown than they have already and that Palinomania couldn't continue unabated and bring more Republicans to the polls. I just think the hill the GOP would have to climb is pretty steep and they're not likely to pull it off in this election.

Well, there you go. Feel free to add your predictions in the comments section and I'll look back on November 5th and see how close I got.