The Risks Facing Obama On Election Day

With only two weeks remaining in the race and months of campaigns behind us, I've been thinking about some of the things that may change this race to Obama's disadvantage on Election Day. This post will be lengthy, and I doubt I'll cover all the bases, but I'll try to get a lot of them.

The accepted meme is "Obama is running away with this thing and will win big". Okay, you could look at things that way if you take the most charitable view of the polls, but ignore recent trends. However, the way is still strewn with landmines that come back to hurt Obama when the voters actually pull the lever. So without further ado, here we go:

1. Bradley Effect

I've dealt with this issue on numerous occasions. You can look here, here and here. I don't think most voters have high regard for pollsters, and nobody wants to be called a racist. Although some pundits are pooh-poohing the notion that the Bradley Effect could still be a factor, I think there's still going to be a certain number of Democrats who will not vote for Obama because he's black.

What's really interesting is the possibility that some black voters may be lying to pollsters too, as suggested by a reader at The Corner:

Think about this - in 2000, GWB garnered 9% of the African American vote. In 2004, his percentage grew to 11%. Currently, all the polls show McCain winning only 3% to 5% of the AA vote. Is it not possible that many African Americans are engaging in the Bradley Effect, too? That is, they're afraid to tell pollsters that they are AA and voting against the first AA nominee for president? What if, on Nov. 4, McCain actually claims 6,7,8 or 9 percent of the AA vote? Will those voters be cast as sell-outs or Uncle Toms?

I think Obama will win a higher percentage of AA voters than GWB did in 2000 or 2004 for the simple fact that he'll probably draw more AA voters to the polls. But to think he'll cut GOP AA votes by 50% or more, I think, is probably wishful thinking on the MSM and Obama's part.

The only thing worse than being called a racist might be getting called an Uncle Tom.

And what about this version of the Bradley Effect, from another Corner reader:

Y'all have written clearly about the oft-confused Bradley Effect in the Corner today, but you have failed to mention the newest Silent Majority - those who are going to vote for McCain/Palin because of Sarah Palin, but are too embarrassed to admidt it to a pollster. It's huge, man.

As for me, as I tell everyone - I'm voting for Sarah Palin and that while-haired dude she's running with. Trust me, I get lots of knowing nods.

I'm not sure the numbers are statistically significant, but no doubt there are some people like that out there.

There's another element to the Bradley Effect and that's inexperience. I'm guessing there will be a great many voters who may have told pollsters they support Obama, but once they walk into that booth won't be able to pull the lever for him because of his inexperience.

All in all, I think any state that Obama leads by less than 5% is a risk for him.

2. Inevitability Breeds Complacency

I'll never forget the story from 2000 when actor Ben Affleck traveled all over the place imploring voters to get out and vote for Al Gore, and then didn't vote himself. He thought it was in the bag. Obama faces a similar problem this year. With the media and even politicians like Nancy Pelosi guaranteeing a win, some voters will believe it doesn't really matter if they vote and they won't show up. That complacency could cost a state in a close race.

Remember Hillary Clinton? She was inevitable too.

3. The Benefits of Divided Government

In 1996 political pundits suddenly found that divided government was something that voters should love. Of course, their new found love of divided government came only after the GOP swept the Dems from power in both houses in 1994. Funny thing, none of the punditry is pushing divided government this year as the Dems are sure to remain in power in both houses of Congress. However, there are a significant number of voters who will gladly vote for McCain to help ensure a divided government. They aren't necessarily Republicans - just people who don't want to hand the keys for the entire government to one party.

4. Joe the Plumber

The single most devastating question asked of Barack Obama this entire campaign was asked by Joe Wurzelbacher, a plumber in Ohio (Rick Warren's question about when a fetus gets human rights was a close second). Obama's answer to Joe the Plumber gave voice to his socialist redistributionist views and gave McCain talking points for days. The attempt by Obama surrogates and the media to destroy Joe's life because he dared to "speak truth to power" has had repercussions for the Obama campaign. There are lots of "Joes" out there who are deeply offended by the heavy-handed way Joe the Plumber was attacked in the effort to divert attention from Obama's answer. Those voters will be looking for revenge.

5. Anger versus Optimism

Which candidate is optimistic about America's future? Which candidate often sounds angry? Whose supporters are happy and chanting "USA! USA! USA!"? Whose supporters tear up campaign signs, vandalize cars with McCain stickers on them, and direct profanity-laced tirades at McCain supporters? Optimism is a lot more attractive than anger.

6. Arrogance versus Confidence

Greek temples? Custom-designed presidential seals? Berlin speeches to thousands of Germans who can't vote in America? A spouse who wasn't proud of her country until her husband ran for president? Lobsters, Iranian caviar, $435 dollars for snacks? Arrogance is a very unattractive quality, while confidence is attractive. Obama has arrogance, McCain confidence.

7. Suppression of Dissent

I've already dealt with the attacks on Joe the Plumber, but there are plenty of other examples of Chicago machine politics in this race. Sarah Palin was savaged when she became a threat to Obama's ascendancy. TV stations in PA had their licenses threatened if they ran NRA ads critical of Obama. Truth squads in Missouri consisting of law enforcement officials threatened to prosecute anyone caught "lying" about Obama. The Fairness Doctrine could be revived to shut down conservative talk radio.

Is this the kind of America we want to live in?

8. Hillary Factor

The disgruntled Hillary voters (known as PUMAs) have not been placated by the Obamessiah. They're still out there and many will vote for McCain-Palin, not because they agree with anything the candidate believes, but because they want to punish the Dems for the way Hillary was treated in the primaries. Secondarily, there are PUMAs who are hoping for a McCain victory to pave the way for Hillary in 2012.

9. Ghosts

The ghosts I'm referring to aren't mystical spirits, but living, breathing fossils of 60's radicals that Obama has palled around with, such as William Ayers and his radical wife. And how about Rev. Jeremiah Wright? Or Tony Rezko? Or Father Michael Pfleger? Or Louis Farrakahn? And how about all those voter fraud experts at ACORN?

We might need to add this category to the "Bradley Effect" stuff.

10. The Jewish Vote

When your middle name is Hussein, you're already working at a distinct disadvantage when it comes to the Jewish vote. And when a prominent supporter like Jesse Jackson states that your election will mean that "Zionists who have controlled American policy for decades" will lose influence, the Jewish vote goes bye-bye. That could be big in Florida.

I personally don't believe Obama is a Muslim at heart, but that story is still circulating out there and for some it will be a dealbreaker.

11. Familiarity Breed Contempt

Although nobody really knows what Obama believes or who he really is, we are all becoming far more familiar with him than we really want thanks to the blitz of TV advertising. With virtually unlimited resources, the Obama campaign is buying up every available TV spot on every available network. Every show I TiVO has ads from Obama that I can thankfully zip through (I don't watch much stuff live). Voters around the country will see an endless supply of Obama ads in the next two weeks, and I have to wonder how many voters will be turned off by that. Do they really want to see this guy every day for the next 4-8 years?

12. Joe the Biden

McCain's secret weapon is Joe Biden. He now promises an international crisis within 6 months of Obama taking office to "test his mettle", tells us the polls will drop because of racism, and talks about how Obama understands that three letter word, J-O-B-S. He's a godsend.

His warnings about an international crisis didn't include McCain. His mettle has already been tested.

13. Israel versus Iran

I talked about the Jewish vote a moment ago, but this time we need to discuss the likelihood of war between Israel and Iran. Back in July I had an item about the rumors that Israel would attack Iran's nuclear facilities before the November election because it would create the best possible political outcome for them in the US. I've also heard that should Obama be elected, Israel will have to attack Iran before Obama takes office lest they find themselves faced with a hostile White House that might hamper their ability to defend themselves. How would you like to see Obama taking office with THREE wars going on?

There are probably other issues that come to your mind, and you're welcome to add them in the comments section.

John McCain certainly has issues of his own that will come into play on election day - namely age, health and temperament, in that order. Along with age and health you have the issue of Sarah Palin who was so savaged during the time McCain had her in hiding that a lot of fantasies about her have become lasting images. If you don't believe she's qualified to be VP, the age and health issues for McCain may be significant.

Early voting is underway in many places and so far Democrats are coming out in larger numbers than Republicans. That really doesn't mean anything because points aren't awarded for early voting, but it could indicate a stronger get-out-the-vote campaign on the part of Obama. Personally, I think he's going to need them. He hasn't won this thing yet.