What to Expect

Here are some thoughts on what to expect today and in the aftermath.

Election Day

1. At HolyCoast.com. I've created a special election day post that will go up around midday on Tuesday and will stay at the top of the page until this thing is decided. At the top of the post will be a map showing the current electoral vote totals as states are called for each candidate. Underneath that information will be an election ticker with headlines of events as they happen. I'll include links if I can. If you keep this page open during the festivities you'll have to refresh periodically to ensure that you have current information.

Bottom line - from about 2pm PST on I'll be busier than a one-armed paperhanger. Comments will be open and unmoderated, so feel free to add your commentary to the post as the night goes on. We'll either celebrate together or be miserable together.

2. Lawsuits, and lots of them. Suits will be filed in a number of states with large turnouts demanding that polls be held open late. They'll judge shop to make sure they find some Clinton appointee that will grant their request. I expect, however, the networks will use the original closing times as their standard for when they can make a projection, assuming they have enough data to do it.

3. Cries of voter suppression. Wherever a precinct runs out of ballots, doesn't open on time, has problems with their voting machines, or any other excuse that seems to fit, the Dems will cry "voter suppression!!". There will be claims that cops are stopping people from getting to the polls (such as the vehicle inspection checkpoint that was set up in Florida on election day in 2004...2 miles from a polling place). Republican election officials will be deemed "corrupt" while Dem election officials will be "overwhelmed by the demand". Count on it.

4. Leaked exit polls (if the polls are favorable to Obama). In 2004 the first wave of exit polls came out midday and showed John Kerry sweeping to a landslide victory. As President Kerry would later admit, they were wrong. However, there is a method to the madness of releasing inaccurate exit polls. They may serve to suppress the votes of people who think their candidate is losing. Don't let them fool you. If they're going to show up anywhere, they'll show up on Drudge.

5. Quick calls for Obama and slow calls for McCain. Bill Sammon documented this effect in 2000 when some states that went for Gore by very narrow margins were called very quickly after the polls closed, while states that went for Bush by much higher margins had their calls delayed as much as an hour or two. That created an environment that suggested that Bush was struggling to hang onto states he had previously won while Gore was skating to victory in other states.

6. Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. Nothing that happens on election night will probably be as important as the result in Pennsylvania. PA polls close at 8pm EST (depending on pending lawsuits), and I doubt anybody will make a quick call because there's so much at stake. I'm guessing the Michael Barone's of the world will want to see some actual vote totals from key precincts and compare those to the public and exit polls before they are willing to stick their neck out on a call. Bottom line, if McCain loses PA, his hopes of the presidency are probably gone. If he wins PA, look out Obamabots. They could be in for a tough evening.

7. Other Key States to Watch. Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina. All states that McCain should (and needs) to win, along with Pennsylvania. Just for fun, New Hampshire and Iowa. McCain wins there could upset things a bit. Colorado and New Mexico could go blue this time, but it's not fatal if McCain holds the states he needs and gets Pennsylvania. And for my friends in the soon-to-be frozen north, North Dakota could be interesting. Should be easily in the McCain column, but the Obamabots have been working pretty hard up there.

8. Early Night or Late Night? If Gallup and the NY Times are correct, it will be a short night with an early Obama win. However, if they're not (and I suspect they're not), we may not have a winner until sometime Wednesday. I expect a number of key states will be very close.

9. Final Result. I still think there's a good chance of a split decision, with Obama winning the popular vote rather handily, but with McCain getting the right combination of states to take the title.

The Aftermath

1. Neither Side Will Accept the Result. If Obama wins Republicans will be focused on the voter fraud issues which will be legion. There are plenty of reasons to believe that their complaints will be valid. Celebrations will get out of hand in several major cities, resulting in riots and destruction.

If McCain wins, Democrats will be convinced that somehow Republican dirty tricks cost them the election, their votes weren't counted, or America is so racist they won't elect a black man. The black and liberal communities will be devastated, and civil unrest will run rampant in urban areas across the country.

If McCain loses the popular vote but wins the electoral vote, look for a constitutional amendment to come out of the Dem-controlled congress to eliminate the electoral college. Look for McCain to veto it. There will be open warfare between Congress and the White House, and unfortunately McCain will want to get along and will probably cave to a lot of stuff a true conservative wouldn't give in to.

2. The Winner Will Inherit a Very Divided Country. Don't believe the hype that Obama will bring unity and harmony. It ain't gonna happen. This country will be as divided as it has ever been since 1860 regardless of who is in the White House.

McCain will try and get along with Dems, to his and our detriment. His administration will probably feature a bunch of compromise efforts in which McCain gives in to Dem demands.

Obama has never shown any proclivity for working with the other side, so in combination with a strongly Dem congress, he'll try and enact as many of his socialist plans as possible. He'll be seen as a weak sister by the tyrants of the world and America will once again be open for terrorist business.

3. Free Speech Will be in Danger if Obama Wins. Look for an attempt to bring back the "Fairness Doctrine" to shut down conservative talk radio, look for new campaign regulations that will try to stifle political commentary on sites like mine, and look for tax audits for the next guy who dares ask a tough question of President Obama.

4. Where'd the Youth Vote Go? That's what all the experts will be asking, as they do every presidential election year. I don't expect youthful voters to show up in any significantly bigger numbers than they ever have.

5. The "Obama Effect". The "Bradley Effect" will be official renamed as the "Obama Effect" when it turns out that most of the undecided voters broke for McCain and many of the Obama voters did too.

And that's just the beginning.


Finally, a little advice to help you through the day. If you're having a hard time dealing with the stress of election day, just crawl into a recliner and put your paw over your eyes until it's over.