Prospects for Card Check Are Fading

If you're not familiar with the term "card check", it's legislation being pushed by unions that would eliminate the secret ballot for union certification elections. With card check union thugs or pro-union workers could basically bully their coworkers into voting for a union whether they want one or not.

Democrats tried to pass card check in the previous Congress, knowing that it wouldn't get by the president. The wanted to look good for the unions without actually ticking off the voters back home. The unions, after putting millions into the election of Democrats in 2008, thought card check was pretty much a sure thing. Maybe not:

Paradoxically, it’s Mr. Reid’s bigger majority that is now hurting him. In 2007, he got every Democrat (save South Dakota’s Tim Johnson, who was out sick) to vote for cloture. But it was an easy vote. Democrats like Mr. Pryor knew the GOP held the filibuster, and that Mr. Bush stood ready with a veto. Now that Mr. Reid has 58 seats, red-state Democrats in particular are worried they might actually have to pass this turkey, infuriating voters and businesses back home.

Mr. Pryor isn’t alone. Fellow Arkansas Democrat Blanche Lincoln voted for cloture in 2007 but is now messaging Mr. Reid that she’s not eager for a repeat. She recently said she doesn’t think “there is a need for this legislation right now,” that the country has bigger problems. What she didn’t mention is that she is also up for re-election next year, and that one potential GOP challenger, Tim Griffin, is already vowing to make card check an issue. South Dakota’s Tim Johnson, Nebraska’s Ben Nelson and others face similar pressure. And it seems unlikely new Senate arrivals such as Colorado’s Mark Udall are eager to make card check an opening vote, especially with visions of United Auto Worker bailouts fresh in voter minds.

Republican “moderates” aren’t eager for card check either. If this were a minimum-wage vote, Maine’s Susan Collins, for example, would be lining up. But polls show more than 80% of Americans disagree with eliminating union ballots. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has bolstered opposition by turning card check into a litmus test of Mr. Obama’s promise to work with the other side. Even Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter, the lone GOP vote for card check in 2007, is backpedaling, worried about a 2010 primary challenge.

I think there will be more than a few Democrats running for the tall grass now that passing card check is a real possibility. They want to keep the unions on their good side, but the voters back home aren't a big fan of legislation that eliminates secret ballots and they might not look kindly on those Congressman who vote to take that right away from workers.