Electoral Troubles Looming

When AP starts writing this stuff you know the Democrats are in trouble:

Despite sweeping Democratic successes in the past two national elections, continuing job losses and President Barack Obama's slipping support could lead to double-digit losses for the party in next year's congressional races and may even threaten their House control.

Fifty-four new Democrats were swept into the House in 2006 and 2008, helping the party claim a decisive majority as voters soured on a Republican president and embraced Obama's message of hope and change. Many of the new Democrats are in districts carried by Republican John McCain in last year's presidential contest; others are in traditional swing districts that have proved tough for either party to hold.

From New Hampshire to Nevada, House Democrats also will be forced to defend votes on Obama's $787 billion economic recovery package and on energy legislation viewed by many as a job killer in an already weak economy.

Add to that the absence of Obama from the top of the ticket, which could reduce turnout among blacks, liberals and young people, and the likelihood of a highly motivated GOP base confused by the president's proposed health care plan and angry at what they consider reckless spending and high debt.

I interrupt this excerpt to take exception to one thing - the line about the "GOP base confused by the president's proposed health care plan". Nobody's confused. We know exactly what he's trying to do and we don't like it.

We now return you to the excerpt:

Taken together, it could be the most toxic environment for Democrats since 1994, when the party lost 34 House incumbents and 54 seats altogether. Democrats currently have a 256-178 edge in the House, with one vacancy. Republicans would have to pick up 40 seats to regain control.

"When you have big sweeps as Democrats did in 2006 and 2008, inevitably some weak candidates get elected. And when the environment gets even moderately challenging, a number of them are going to lose," said Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College in California.

Since the mid-19th century, the party that controls the White House has lost seats in virtually every midterm election. The exceptions were in 1934, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt navigated the Great Depression, and in 2002, after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, strengthened George W. Bush's image as a leader.

Yes it did. And Obama's actions are strengthening his image as a socialist.

I've heard predictions of as few as 20 to as many as 100 seats could change from blue to red in 2010. I think 40-60 is very reasonable, depending on what the Democrats do in the next year. If they ram health care through using procedural tricks then few Dem incumbents will be safe and there will be a near civil war in this country.

If sanity should be restored in the Dem party they can probably hold onto the majority in the House, though not by a lot.

I'm not sure which I'm rooting for.