CA-10, Another Race to Watch

Everyone is watching the Virginia and New Jersey governor's races along with the special election in NY-23 to see which way the political winds are blowing, but an even more telling race may be CA-10 where a Republican has a chance to knock off an old guard liberal in a special election in the liberal-leaning district.

Bruce Walker at American Thinker tells us why this race could swing toward the GOP:

The California 10th Congressional District is left-leaning, but it is hardly unwinnable for Republicans under the right circumstances. So are the circumstances right for David Harmer in 2009? What is the mood of California voters right now? Well, five months ago, Californians gave all establishment politicians a dramatic, almost unprecedented thumping. Six different ballot measures were put before the people. Five of the six were supported by the Democrat establishment in Sacramento, and the sixth was supported by the people of California.

What happened? Each measure supported by state Democrat leaders like Lieutenant Governor Garamendi suffered a crushing defeat. Constituents in California Congressional District 10 joined with other Californians in overwhelmingly rejecting what Democrats like Garamendi were selling. The one measure which the people wanted -- limiting the salaries of state-elected officials like Garamendi in those years in which the state budget was not balanced -- won by a landslide statewide. This populist measure did particularly well in California Congressional District 10.

The elites were not pleased. Two weeks ago, the Chief Justice of the California Supreme Court claimed in a speech in Cambridge, Massachusetts that ordinary Californians had put elected state officials in a "straitjacket" and that the system of allowing voters to actually vote on measures was "dysfunctional." That sort of statement shows just how arrogant elected officials like the Chief Justice and the Lieutenant Governor have become in California. Someone with a keen political nose might sense that voters in District 10 were ready for some real change, like electing a strong fiscal conservative. Polling data, which shows the race in District 10 as close with lots of undecided voters, supports that theory. Throw into this scenario the generally-accepted fact that conservative voters are much more motivated than liberal voters now, and it sure looks like David Harmer could win.

What would a Harmer victory do? Victory in Nancy Pelosi's backyard by a conservative Republican strongly opposed to Obamacare in a district held for a long time by liberal Democrats would almost certainly give dozens of House Democrats a case of cold feet on Obamacare. How could Pelosi convince congressmen in Virginia, Colorado, and Texas to support Obamacare when even her neighboring congressional districts in northern California are against it?

The impact of a Harmer victory would ripple through California state government as well. When the Lieutenant Governor cannot win a special election in a Democrat-gerrymandered district, then Democrats statewide begin to look very vulnerable when confronted with genuine ideological opposition. The RNC, then, has an opportunity to help Republicans in Congress and also Republicans trying to gain more control of California state government. If Harmer wins, it is a body blow to the Democrat Party nationally and in the country's biggest state. He ought to be getting every spare nickel Republican organizations can spare. A Harmer victory would be huge.

At best it's probably 60-40 that Garamendi wins, but I wouldn't rule out an upset at a time when Democrat stock is not doing too well, especially in California.