Five Races to Watch Today

Even though only few major offices are on the line, this is a big election day because it marks the first time voters will be going to the polls following the ascension of The One. Here are the five key races:

Virginia Governor: Republican Bob McDonnell will beat Democrat Creigh Deeds like a rented mule. Double digits, called the moment the polls close. Obama took Virginia last year, the first Democrat to do that since LBJ. His coalition will not hold together.

New Jersey Governor: This one is very, very close. The question is will Republic Chris Christie be able to gain enough votes to beat the "margin of fraud". ACORN is hard at work in New Jersey and they have a whole collection of judges more than willing to allow absentee ballots with signatures that don't even remotely resemble the signatures on voter registrations. For Christie to win he'll have to have decisive margins. If it's close, it will be stolen.

Personally, I think Christie will pull it out. Democrat Jon Corzine has been generally incompetent, taxes are ridiculous in that state, and I think the voters there realize they could do better.

New York 23: This special election has garnered tremendous attention since the liberal GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava was exposed and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman became the object of the affections of many prominent conservatives, including Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, and Tim Pawlenty. Scozzafava withdrew and promptly endorsed Democrat Bill Owens, and frankly, I think that doomed him. Hoffman should win with a comfortable margin.

California 10: I had high hopes for this special election in the Gay Bay area, but it was probably too much to hope for that a conservative could beat an old guard liberal Democrat in a pretty lefty district. Republican David Harmer will probably lose to Democrat John Garamendi, and California will be worse for it.

Atlanta Mayor: This one is interesting only because of the racial angle. Atlanta is poised to elect the first white mayor in 35 years. City Councilwoman Mary Norwood is polling well ahead of several black candidates who are apparently splitting the black vote. Norwood has to get a majority to avoid a runoff, and should she end up in a runoff against a black candidate, Atlanta will probably continue in its monochrome ways. However, Norwood is polling near 50% and could win the thing outright. If she does a lot of race hustler heads will explode.

I'll have results as they come in tonight. Should the first three races go to the conservatives, the reaction from the political punditry will be interesting. Most will try and insulate Obama from any of this and will try to spin NY-23 as a big defeat for the GOP since they supported the RINO.

We'll know better.