Scripted Votes and Pro-Life Suckers

Now, I know most of the people who read this blog are pro-life (as am I), so before you get all worked up about that post title, hear me out. The pro-life movement did not distinguish itself during last night's Obamacare vote in the House, it got played by Nancy Pelosi and I'll explain how in a moment.

Last night's vote in the House was as carefully scripted as a WWE wrestling match. The winner was predetermined and every move along the way carefully planned. Thirty-nine Democrats were given political cover by Pelosi, most of whom are in districts where a "yes" vote on Obamacare could have cost them their seats in 2010. She was able to protect as many as she possibly could and still pass the bill 220-215. 218 votes were needed for passage, so she got two more Dems than she needed and one Republican who may have been given cover by the GOP but in so doing allowed Dems to call the vote "bipartisan" (Steny Hoyer used that exact word in the post-vote press conference).

By having two more Dems than she needed no one could point to a single person and declare that he or she was the "deciding" vote. Bill Owens, elected just last Tuesday in NY-23, voted for the bill despite having campaigned against a public option. The extra Democrat vote was just for him, though in his case it may not matter. I think he's toast next year no matter what.

So, how did the pro-lifers guarantee passage of Obamacare? The bill was bound for defeat because of the provision that provided federal funds for abortions. Rep. Bart Stupak, a pro-life Democrat, was leading the charge to have that stripped out of the bill via an amendment. Of course, most Republicans also supported the idea but didn't bother to think of the tactical ramifications passing such an amendment would have.

The news reports yesterday afternoon stated that Pelosi had to "give in" and allow a vote on Stupak, but she didn't give in at all. It was a tactical move on her part to get the bill passed. She knew Stupak would pass and the moment it did all of the pro-life Dems would have political and moral cover to vote for Obamacare. She also knew that she didn't have to worry about a pro-choice revolt on the left because she'd already assured them that the Stupak amendment would be removed in the conference committee.

Don't believe me? This from the AP report:

In the run-up to a final vote, conservatives from the two political parties joined forces to impose tough new restrictions on abortion coverage in insurance policies to be sold to many individuals and small groups. They prevailed on a roll call of 240-194.

Ironically, that only solidified support for the legislation, clearing the way for conservative Democrats to vote for it.

Bottom line, though pro-lifers were celebrating the passage of Stupak, they were played for suckers. There's no way the final bill will exclude funding for abortion. Obama himself told the Democrats that he work to get that funding back in the bill. Had the GOP followed the "strategery" I laid out last night and voted "present" on Stupak, thus defeating the amendment, there's a much greater chance the whole bill would have been defeated. Pro-life activist groups would have been angry for the moment, but hopefully would have figured out that the GOP action had the intended result of killing Obamacare.

I saw some people "Tweeting" that "millions of lives had just been saved" because Stupak had passed, but it was a Pyrrhic victory at best. Pro-lifers won the battle but in so doing guaranteed that they would lose the war. Single-issue voters are often their own worst enemies.

Now it's on to the Senate where passage is much less certain. There are all kinds of ways the minority can delay or defeat this thing. Sen. Tom Coburn is already threatening to make them read the 2,000 page bill aloud in the Senate every time such a reading could be required, and that could stretch things for months (it only takes one Senator to make such a demand). A filibuster is certain, and Senators, who have a much harder time keeping their seats than Representatives, will be much less likely to sign on to this monstrosity if it will cause them problems back home.

Last night was a defeat for a lot of people, but to use my favorite Civil War analogies, the Union lost badly at Fredricksburg but still won the war. It's still possible to win the war against Obamacare.