HolyCoast: Excited and Terrified
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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Excited and Terrified

As we go into today's special election my excitement/terrified ratio is about 70%/30%. 70% excited about a Scott Brown win and 30% terrified that we'll have a repeat of NY-23 and Coakley will defy all the polls and pull out a win through means that only Democrats, ACORN and the SEIU will know.

Brown needs to do more than just win, he needs to win decisively, and by that I mean by 6% or more. That will accomplish a couple of things - it takes a recount completely out of the picture because there's no way a recount can make up that kind of deficit, and it makes it very difficult for Democrats in Massachusetts and Washington to delay Brown's seating in the Senate. It will also make it very uncomfortable for the Dems should they try and ram through Obamacare before he's seated.

A decisive Scott Brown win will set off a political earthquake like nothing we've seen for awhile. Replacing Teddy Kennedy with a pretty conservative Republican was a complete impossibility even 30 days ago. What do you think that's going to do to other Democrats facing elections this year?

I'd like to have the clean underwear concession on Capitol Hill.

The final DSCC poll apparently has Brown +5, but I'll bet if you look at their turnout models you'll find them overly hopeful when it comes to Democrats. My guess is +7 or +8 is more likely. And the weather in the heavily pro-Brown areas is not as bad as previously forecast. That should help the Brown turnout.

Hopefully we'll know the results within a short time after the polls close at 8pm EST. It'll be nail-biting time until them.

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