Hillary Watch 2012

I'm not the only one who thinks Hillary Clinton will be running a primary challenge to Obama in 2012. Thomas Del Beccaro at Big Government has some thoughts:

Hillary Will Run in 2012. If the Democrats lose the House, they can blame Nancy, Harry and Obama. Their agenda was far too divisive in an era of divisive politics. No one, however, deserves more blame than Obama. He picked too many fights with Americans and couldn’t control Pelosi. That is why his ratings are so low.

Beyond that, Obama will likely not be able to make a Clinton comeback. Obama couldn’t get his radical agenda passed even though the Democrats controlled the Senate and House because he lacks the necessary skills to build consensus and govern. His leadership deficiencies mean that he won’t fare any better in a divided government.

In the face of such Carter-like difficulties, the Democrats will have to ask themselves: Should we place our 2012 Congressional election fate in the hands of Obama? Many will say yes – enough could well say no because . . .

(a) Obama will have not done much for them. Keep in mind that Obama was rushed into the Presidency. He didn’t have a long career of helping other Democrats around the country. As a result, he doesn’t have a reservoir of good will from battles he fought for them. Just the opposite, they went out on a limb for him. Since becoming President, Obama pushed headlong into policy fights that have hurt Democrats more then helped them. Obama’s campaigning for candidates has not been successful either – just ask Governor Corzine and Senator Coakley. Indeed, moderate Democrats are telling him to stay away in 2010. All-in-all, don’t expect too many to bleed for Obama in 2012 – to the contrary, many will prefer to try to stop the bleeding they are suffering at his hands.

(b) Hillary Will Have Better Ratings Than Obama. The Clintons are no dummies. They knew Obama would fail. So, in anticipation, Hillary simultaneously (a) burnished her foreign policy credentials as Secretary of State, and (b) distanced herself from the domestic problems of the Democrats and her approval ratings have risen accordingly – even if she had no major successes. Brilliant by comparison to Obama.

She can also correctly say: “I Told You So – he wasn’t ready and I certainly am.”

The Democrats, or enough them, won’t want to give up the White House in 2012. Carter was a one term President – Johnson not much more than that. Their only two-term President was a Clinton – and enough Democrats will urge this Clinton to run in 2012 hoping for another electoral first – a female President.

Too farfetched you say? Check out my 2010 predictions made in January of 2009.

and stay tuned – watch for Hillary to resign from her position Secretary of State sooner than later . . .

If you go back to this piece I wrote on January 5th you'll see many of the same thoughts. I just can't believe Hillary will be content to sit back and allow Obama to run unopposed (by her, at least) for the 2012 nomination. It could be one of those primaries where if one strong candidate gets in, like Evan Bayh, a whole bunch of them could pile on.