Dem Prospects for 2010 Worsen

Stu Rothenberg is looking at the 2010 election situation and doesn't see a lot of good news for Democrats. Here's the end of his report:

Privately, many Democratic insiders acknowledge that the party’s outlook is increasingly bleak for the fall. Health care reform, once seen as a party strength, has turned into a significant liability, and few think the economy will turn around far enough or fast enough to help Democratic candidates in the midterm elections.

Even before this election cycle started, midterm election turnout trends put Democrats at something of a disadvantage. But now, every poll that I have seen suggests that Republicans are dramatically more motivated than are Democrats, which means a more conservative and Republican electorate this year than in 2008, as well as much-improved Republican prospects.

I have been hesitant — and I remain hesitant — to get too far in front of the election cycle, since circumstances can change and Democrats could well have an important financial advantage in the key post-Labor Day time period. But let’s be clear about what is developing: Obama and the Democratic Congressional leadership have dug themselves into a deep and dangerous political hole, and the only question right now seems to be the severity of the drubbing.

As one smart Democratic strategist told me recently, “All of the elements are in place for a disaster like 1994. But it could be even worse.”

Read the whole thing for some critical polling info. Before the passage of Obamacare I wasn't sure if the GOP could take back the House. Most observers still think the numbers will fall short of the 40 needed to retire Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, but after the political debacle of the last two weeks it's hard to believe that the Democrats will be able to survive the voter anger that's coming their way. I no longer consider a loss of 50-60 seats out of the question.