Sen. Robert Byrd Dies at 92

Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV), the longest serving senator in U.S. history, died at 3am EDT this morning.

The first question on many political minds is what happens now?  According to West Virginia law, because Byrd's seat was vacated more than 2 1/2 years before the end of his term Dem Gov. Joe Manchin can appoint an interim senator who will serve until a special election this coming November.  Had Byrd survived until July 3rd - next Saturday - that appointment would have lasted all the way until the end of Byrd's term in 2013.

Of course, Democrats are known to play fast and loose with election laws so it wouldn't surprise me if there was some sort of challenge to try and make the appointment permanent.

Politically, this could have mixed results for Obama and the Democrats.  I would expect Manchin to appoint someone very soon which means Democrats will hold that seat a little bit longer and someone will be there to vote for Obama's agenda.  If Byrd had lingered for months more that seat probably would have been empty and the Dems would have been denied that vote.  You hate to be crass, but Byrd's death is probably good for Democrats in the short term.

Long term the outlook is a little more clouded.  This will not be a good election year for Democrats and depending on who runs in November they could well lose that seat.  Gov. Manchin is thought to want that seat and should he decide to run he would be a strong candidate.  Anyone else is a crapshoot.

I'll have more analysis from others as the day goes on.

UPDATE:  What did I tell you about Democrats and election laws?

WV law gives Gov. Joe Manchin (D) the power to appoint Byrd's replacement. If a vacancy occurs within 2 and a half years of the beginning of the next term, the governor appoints a replacement until that next election. But state law says an election must be called if a vacancy occurs more than 2 and a half years before a term expires. Byrd's term would have had 2 and a half years left as of next week -- July 3.

But a special election is unlikely. State law says Manchin's appointment will be valid "until a successor to the office has timely filed a certificate of candidacy, has been nominated at the primary election next following such timely filing and has thereafter been elected and qualified to fill the unexpired term."

The WV primary took place May 11, making it unlikely that a special election will take place this year. And odd-year elections, used in many states to pick local officials, are a rarity in WV. In recent years, voters went to the polls only in '05, when they voted on a constitutional amendment. No elections were held in '07, '03 or '01.

Because the primary has already occured, the next opportunity to "timely file" will be Jan. '12 -- when Byrd's seat would have come open anyway. A primary would follow in May, with a special election to be held in concurrence with a general election later that year.

And this:

ABC News reports that the law in West Virginia says that the governor has to declare the seat vacant — and Manchin could wait to do that, apparently.  We’ll see whether West Virginians will demand immediate action.  However, the longer Manchin waits, the longer Harry Reid has to have one less vote for breaking filibusters, too.  I’m guessing that little will get done this week.