The Ohio Revolt

We're told every presidential election cycle that Ohio is a bellweather state, having voted for the winning presidential candidate since 1964, and all but one since 1948 (they went for Nixon in '60).  Given the current polling in Ohio, the Democrats are in big trouble.  Their incumbent Dem governor is on his way to a crushing defeat:

Republican challenger John Kasich has a 54 – 37 percent lead over Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland in the race to be Ohio’s next chief state executive, with much of his lead due to overwhelming support among independent voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today....


“Independent voters often decide elections in Ohio and Kasich leads among the unaffiliated by 23 points. Not only that, but John Kasich does slightly better among Democrats than Strickland does among Republicans,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The open Senate seat, currently held by a Republican, is likely to stay in the GOP fold:

Republican Rob Portman holds a 55 – 35 percent lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher among likely voters in the race for Ohio’s U.S. Senate seat, while President Barack Obama has a 60 – 38 percent disapproval rating, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

By a 58 – 37 percent margin, likely Ohio voters want a U.S. Senator who opposes President Obama’s policies, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. And by 49 – 31 percent, voters want Republicans rather than Democrats to control the U.S. Senate. …

“Among the likely Ohio electorate for this November, President Barack Obama is not a popular fellow. Independent likely voters disapprove 65 – 31 percent of the job he is doing. With the president such a heavy weight around the neck of Democratic candidates, it will be hard for one to win such a high-profile office this year in Ohio,” Brown said.

One reason for the president’s poor rating, at least in Ohio, is his health care overhaul plan. Likely voters disapprove of it by a 65 – 30 percent margin.

Four Ohio Dem congressmen are also in big trouble, and all four voted for Obamacare.  This anecdote about one town hall meeting is interesting:

It hasn’t been easy: Only a handful of black voters came to a health-care town-hall event hosted by (Rep.) Driehaus amid the rundown pews of a one-room Baptist church earlier this month. Attendance was so sparse that Victoria Parks, the African- American field outreach director for Driehaus, headed to another church across the street to recruit additional participants from a gospel choir practice.

I guess you call that preaching to the choir.

The GOP is also likely to sweep a host of state races. If there's one state in the union that has turned the hardest against Obama and his policies, it's Ohio.  It could well be a sign of how many other parts of the country will go.

And you look to nearby Pennsylvania for proof of that.