CNN: GOP +8

CNN's generic congressional poll lines up quite nicely with Pew, Rasmussen and Gallup:

A CNN Poll of Polls compiled and released Friday indicates that 50 percent of likely voters would choose a Republican candidate for Congress if the election were held today, with 42 percent saying they would vote for a Democrat.

Eleven days before the election, Republicans continue to poll ahead of Democrats when voters are asked whom they would choose for Congress on election day. The Republican margin has increased one percentage point since the last CNN Poll of Polls, from a seven point margin to an eight point margin, which is virtually identical to the previous survey.

It's pretty much a sure thing now that the GOP will go into election day with somewhere between a 5 and 9 point lead in the generic ballot, and when you add in the enthusiasm and turnout factors, that lead could jump into double digits.

And look what Jim Geraghty's political guru, known as Obi-Wan, had to say about what he's seeing:

Nobody has never seen nothing -- and I do mean to use the ungrammatical double negative here – like this. So far, this is not a “wave” election, this is a super-wave election.

Are you hearing Michael Barone on the radio or television? I don’t mean his analysis but that sound in his voice. The man is in awe. A part of him – like everybody else including your trusty extra-galactic wise man -- does not know what in all tarnation (Westerns again) to make of this data and this election. The GOP generic lead is nothing like the polling run-up to 1994 or any other time. Off-the-charts stuff.

People like Barone don’t know what this means. Even as he goes digging around in the19th century data for something similar and readily allows the possibility of astounding GOP house gains, Barone is asking himself: Can this go on? Aren’t we likely to revert to something approaching a more normal “wave” at some point? (Incidentally, we saw a little something like that in 2006. The Dem lead got halved over the weekend before the election.)

And that’s not the only question. If this turns out to be a super-wave election the fact is, we just don’t know what happens to Senate races in super-wave elections --is it possible the Democrats have individualized enough races and their negative ads can have enough impact to alter a super-wave? Or will enough of the electorate actually be frightened by talk of a GOP sweep and want to limit power in Washington by voting Democratic in some Senate races?

And this from Jay Cost, who has a lengthy analysis at the Weekly Standard:

While matters are still uncertain, and a lot can change in the next week and a half, I am upgrading my estimate of net Republican gains to 61 seats. This would produce a congressional caucus of 240 Republicans, larger than any since 1946.

Again, don't get cocky. Complacent Republicans could turn a sweep into a mild rout if we don't get our people to the polls. We already know the Dems are inventing new voters as fast as they can and trying to flood the system with bogus registrations and early votes. We have to beat them big because we know they cheat.