Four Scenarios

Jim Geraghty's anonymous political guru, known as Obi-Wan, offers the four possible scenarios for the Nov. 2nd election:

Obi-Wan: First, THE FADING-GOP WAVE SCENARIO: This one is easy. If the generic GOP lead starts to fade and this continues through the weekend to a few points or nearly even on Election Day, then the GOP makes gains in the House but fails to take control, and gains three or four in the Senate. (With disappointments in places like Pennsylvania, Colorado, California and maybe Nevada.)

Second, THE OKAY WAVE SCENARIO: Polling stays about where it is -- with strong generic GOP lead (5 to 9 percentage points or more) as GOP leads in many Senate races stay roughly the same; in places like Washington, California and Connecticut, Democrat candidates either break 50 percent or keep a steady gap or widen it. Still, a wave election, with House gains of up to 50 or 60. But GOP fails at Senate control by two to four seats, which shows that (1) to some extent the Democrats’ strategy of individualizing senate rates with harsh negative attacks worked or (2) voters just chose to channel their anger at the Obama administration in their House voting but were discriminating – picking and choosing -- in the Senate races.

Third, THE HAPPY-TIMES WAVE SCENARIO: Polling stays about where it is -- with strong generic GOP lead between 5 and 9 and GOP Senate candidates in Washington, California, and Connecticut still within reach (6 to 9 points down.) There you would see House gains of up to 50 or 60 or a bit beyond, and it’s a wave election that really does lift all boats and the GOP takes the Senate by a vote or two.

Fourth, THE SUPERWAVE: House gains of 60 to 90, even beyond. Senate races carried along as GOP ends up with three or four vote margin in Senate.

So, which one does he think is happening? Right now it's something between the Happy-Times Wave and the Superwave. You can read the piece for more.

He also adds this:

Jim: Is Obama’s campaigning going to make difference?

Obi-Wan: Yes, for Republicans. You know those post-election studies that show unexpected factors? I wouldn’t be surprised to see one showing that Obama orating at a rally without a jacket on instead of being president gave the country an exact daily image of what’s bothering it about him: he’s a candidate, not a president. Victor Davis Hanson wrote an interesting article about how this guy spent his whole life not really accomplishing anything but just making an impression. So he’s addicted to rallies—he needs the love. And Axelrod doesn’t know what else to do. Fire-up the base. Right. The Republican base. They should have had him playing president all election-cycle not banging a podium and working the rope line.

Obama doesn't know how to do that presidenting stuff, he only knows the campaigning stuff.