Is Bill Clinton Helping Set Up 2012 or 2016?

Toby Harden, writing in the UK Telegraph, has been checking out what Bill Clinton is doing these days.  Clinton is on the campaign trail, not to promote Obama's agenda, but to support those candidates who helped his wife run for president and to lay the groundwork for Hillary's political future:

Bill, hoarse-voiced but with a glint in his eye, explained that this was his 80th event. He made crystal clear just who he was representing on the campaign trail – and it wasn't Obama. "I planned to do about one stop for everybody that helped Hillary run for president because she's one of only two members of the president's cabinet who cannot participate in politics," he said.

As Secretary of State, he reminded people, is not permitted to campaign. "Then I got out here and started stirring around and realised that a lot of people were mad and even more confused and I didn't want it on my conscience so I just loaded up and started strolling around."

The Clintons are undoubtedly an unusual couple. Bill's past indiscretions are legendary and their jobs – he is now a globe-trotting philanthropist – mean that these days they see each other less often than the average American goes to the dentist.

Yet they remain together (who would have thought the Gore marriage would unravel first?) and are a remarkable political tag team.

Bill's energetic reappearance on the campaign trail comes just as rumours, some of them eagerly fuelled by the Clinton camp, swirl that Hillary might replace the hapless Joe Biden as Obama's vice-presidential running mate in 2012 or even challenge the President for the Democratic nomination if his popularity continues to slide.

Neither option makes much sense for Hillary, whose performance as Secretary of State, in which she has been supportive of the US military and sought to stiffen Obama's spine in Afghanistan, has won admirers even on the Right.

Becoming vice-president would tie her to Obama on domestic policy. Through political good fortune (not to mention calculation), she has been out of that arena for the past two years, meaning that there are no Clinton fingerprints on unpopular health care, bail-out or stimulus legislation.

Hillary has been loyal to Obama – it would have been politically foolish to appear otherwise – but her discrete job means she can remain distant from most of what he does.

It just so happens that Hillary will be out of town on November 2nd, when Democrats expect a pummeling at the polls. She'll be on the other side of the globe, in fact, on a tour including stops in Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea.

The message is unmistakable: "Nothing to do with me!" Challenging Obama in 2012, even if he is in dire straits, would be incredibly risky. To seek to oust the first black president would split the Democrats in two and almost guarantee a Republican victory even if Hillary won the nomination. It's a non-starter.

But 2016 is different. No one takes her denials of wanting to run again at face value and aides are quietly putting it about that she still has her eyes on the White House. Her former chief strategist Mark Penn recently polled her popularity compared to Obama's.

Bill's stump speeches are helping lay the foundations of a 2016 campaign. His presence on the campaign trail, often in parts of the country where Obama is not so popular, reinforces the 2008 argument that the Clintons (in terms of power politics, it is fruitless to view them separately) can reach places Obama cannot.

I'm still not ready to rule out a 2012 primary challenge from Hillary. The whole "first black president" has pretty much run its course, and whoever challenges Obama from either party is going to have the race card played against them. A woman candidate is probably in better position to deflect that criticism than a white male.

Hillary still has many, many fans among Democrats, and many who voted for Obama in the primaries would eagerly support her now, having seen the mess Obama has made.  She clearly has the best shot of any Democrat at winning a primary challenge.

Winning the presidency, however, is another thing altogether.  Depending on the level of mess still being dealt with in 2012 voters may be through with the Dem party for awhile and even Hillary may not be able to persuade them to trust her.  The only thing I see keeping her out of the 2012 race would be a political environment that's still as toxic to Dems as it is this year.