California's "Big One" Might Not Be An Earthquake

It might be a flood:

California has more risk of catastrophic storms than any other region in the country – even the Southern hurricane states, according to a new study released Thursday.

The two-year study by the U.S. Geological Survey is the most thorough effort yet to assess the potential effects of a "worst-case" storm in California.

It builds on a new understanding of so-called atmospheric rivers, a focusing of high-powered winds that drag a fire hose of tropical moisture across the Pacific Ocean, pointed directly at California for days on end. The state got a relatively tame taste of the phenomenon in December.

The team of experts that developed the scenario can't say when it will happen. But they do say it has happened in the past and is virtually certain to strike again.

"This storm, with essentially the same probability as a major earthquake, is potentially four to five times more damaging," said Lucy Jones, USGS chief scientist on the study. "That's not something that is in the public consciousness."

If you can imagine one of the big rain days we had in December extended for nine straight days you have the 500-year storm scenario. Depending on which part of the state got the brunt of it there could be damage on a significant scale.

And, for all the global warming alarmists, it's happened before when SUVs were still a twinkle in the eyes of Henry Ford's ancestors:

Such storms have happened. The primary example in the study occurred over December and January, 1861-62. Rain fell on and off for 45 days. Sacramento was inundated, and Gov.-elect Leland Stanford famously took a rowboat to his inauguration.

In Orange County I'm sure our hillsides would take a beating in a storm like that, but all of our rivers and most flood control channels are now made of concrete which can move a lot of water pretty quickly out to sea. Even a long rain event like December's left most of the area undamaged and unflooded.