HolyCoast: Last Two Wisconsin Recalls Tonight

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Last Two Wisconsin Recalls Tonight

Gentlemen, start your ballots:
The Wisconsin recall fight ends Tuesday, and while the state Senate is no longer in play, Republicans could cut into the gains Democrats made last week. One Democratic seat in tomorrow’s election is probably safe; the race for the other one is very close.

“Here we’re fighting on our turf,” said Wisconsin Democratic Party spokesman Graeme Zielinski. “We’re cautiously optimistic.”

State Sen. Jim Holperin appears to have the slight edge in the hotly-contested 12th district as a well-liked incumbent, but increased Republican enthusiasm in this GOP-leaning territory makes it basically a toss-up….

Of the remaining two Democrats facing recalls, Holperin is by far the more vulnerable. His district went 57 percent for Walker in 2010, and only 53 percent for President Obama in 2008. Obama performed better in every other state senate district held by a Democrat — and in seven held by Republicans. Holperin faces Kim Simac on Tuesday, a local tea party activist.

The other state senator targeted for recall tomorrow, Bob Wirch, is statistically safer; his district went 53 percent for Walker and 57 percent for Obama in 2008. He also faces a political newcomer — Jonathan Steitz, a corporate lawyer who works in Chicago. Spending here suggests the race is not nearly as heavily contested.
The lefties have been doing some polling and they feel they'll win both of these by double digits. However, after losing 4 of 6 last week and failing to take control of the Senate as they had planned, the Democrats will not be terribly inspired to get to the polls and try and save these seats. I have a feeling the Dem turnout models are probably far too optimistic and the GOP could grab one of those seats.

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