Ray Fair of Yale University runs a much-respected election forecasting model. It takes into account such factors as the power of incumbency, real per capital GDP growth, etc. Here is his just-updated forecast that shows President Obama has only a 50-50 chance at winning a second term. According to the Fair model, a so-so economy going forward means Obama would get just 50.0 percent of the two-party vote (noted as “VP” in the below chart) vs. 53.4 percent in the summer due to the slowing economic recovery:There's more data at the link. Of course, all this assumes the GOP can get their act together and nominate someone the voters would prefer to Obama, and right now that's not a sure thing.
October 30, 2011, comment: The October 30, 2011, forecast from the US model is somewhat less optimistic about future output growth than was the July 31, 2011, forecast. G is now 2.75 rather than 3.64, and Z is now 1 rather than 4. (The one good news quarter is 2012:3.) P is slightly lower at 1.88 versus 2.06 before. The new economic values lead to a predicted value of VP of 50.0, down from 53.4 in July. The predicted value of VC has fallen from 48.5 to 46.6.The message from the presidential vote equation does not, of course, change. For a moderately growing economy, which the US model is now forecasting, the election is prediced to be close. If the economy does considerably better, which the US model was forecasting earlier, Obama is predicted to win, although the election is still fairly close. If the economy goes into another recession, Obama is predicted to lose.
Thursday, November 03, 2011
James Pethokoukis at AEI has information on one of the more respected election models, and it's not good news for Obama (but very good news for the rest of us):
Posted by Rick Moore on 11/03/2011