HolyCoast: Election Models Spell Trouble for Obama

Thursday, November 03, 2011

Election Models Spell Trouble for Obama

James Pethokoukis at AEI has information on one of the more respected election models, and it's not good news for Obama (but very good news for the rest of us):
Ray Fair of Yale University runs a much-respected election forecasting model. It takes into account such factors as the power of incumbency, real per capital GDP growth, etc. Here is his just-updated forecast that shows President Obama has only a 50-50 chance at winning a second term. According to the Fair model, a so-so economy going forward means Obama would get just 50.0 percent of the two-party vote  (noted as “VP” in the below chart) vs. 53.4 percent in the summer due to the slowing economic recovery:

October 30, 2011, comment: The October 30, 2011, forecast from the US model is somewhat less optimistic about future output growth than was the July 31, 2011, forecast. G is now 2.75 rather than 3.64, and Z is now 1 rather than 4. (The one good news quarter is 2012:3.) P is slightly lower at 1.88 versus 2.06 before. The new economic values lead to a predicted value of VP of 50.0, down from 53.4 in July. The predicted value of VC has fallen from 48.5 to 46.6.
The message from the presidential vote equation does not, of course, change. For a moderately growing economy, which the US model is now forecasting, the election is prediced to be close. If the economy does considerably better, which the US model was forecasting earlier, Obama is predicted to win, although the election is still fairly close. If the economy goes into another recession, Obama is predicted to lose.
There's more data at the link. Of course, all this assumes the GOP can get their act together and nominate someone the voters would prefer to Obama, and right now that's not a sure thing.

1 comment:

Larry said...

“If the economy goes into another recession...”. IF? Things are pretty bad for many people right now. Those who aren't in trouble are fearful that they will be in financial trouble in the near future. All Obama has to do is keep the economy in the toilet and then pull some Chicago stunt that causes the economy to perk up just a little bit in September, and all will be forgiven.

The public has the attention span of a gnat, and when they go to vote in Nov2012 will only remember that things have been okay for the last month -not that they've been horrible for the last four years. 8 percent unemployment will look like a godsend next year and the media will be singing Obama's praises for his wonderful accomplishment.