HolyCoast: Current State of Electoral Maps

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Current State of Electoral Maps

Larry Sabato at the UVA Center for Politics has a new Crystal Ball report out with a couple of Electoral College maps - one not too bad and one scary.  First, the current state of play:
I think some of those toss-ups and Leans R states like FL, NC, VA, OH, IN and MO are probably going to go solidly toward Romney before too long.  Maybe even CO, but that state has become a bit of an enigma.

Here's the map that's pretty troubling, because it shows Obama winning a bare majority - enough to win re-election:
This is where I think Romney's choice of VP could be a game-changer. If he chooses Marco Rubio the Hispanic vote in NM, CO and NV suddenly can't be taken for granted by Obama.  A flip of any of those states and Obama is gone.  WI could also be a wild card.  Should Gov. Scott Walker win his recall battle (which I think he will) conservatives in that state will feel very empowered, libs will be disheartened, and that could have an effect on the turnout and eventual result in that state.

You can read the whole report here.

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